photo: libkos

Holdback of the Western financial and military aids were a Christmas gift for President Putin. Favourites of Putin wished to give Avdiivka as a complimentary present, but despite the loss of 30,000 Russian troops the city still resists. If the only gift under the tree was from the West, shame would strike hard on the favourites. But luck was on their side, a neighbouring frontline city Mariinka was finally occupied and could be wrapped to fill the void under the tree. 

President Vladimir Putin congratulated his minister of defence over his announcement of the seizure on state  television. While desolate images of destruction of the city were rolling in the background, President Putin - in the dehumanised materialistic style of the old Soviets - emphasised the real world implication of the success - " that gives Russian troops the opportunity to move into a wider operational area". 

"Wider operational area" - the sophisticated military jargon of the President was complemented by his Minister Shoigu’s deep analysis of the facts -  "with the control of Mariinka his soldiers would be able to move further and make it possible to protect Donetsk more effectively from strikes of Ukrainian forces".

Gift giving is an ancient tradition and in the Christian world it is associated with Christmas.  As Christianity spread and finally became the dominant religion in the Roman Empire, the tradition to exchange gifts during the pagan festival Saturnalia became part of Christmas rituals. If the gift exchange aspect of the festival is put aside, its main purpose is actually to share the positive human emotions like love, hope and joy. 

Indeed, these most positive human emotions were observed even in the bleak conditions of World War I during the Christmas truce of 1914. The truce occurred in the early months of the war as the armies ran out of men and munitions. During the stalemate, on the eve of Christmas, French, German and British soldiers crossed trenches into no-man's land to exchange food and talk. Even football matches were organised.

While the wise leaders of Russia accurately explain the facts to their patriotic audience - who otherwise would think "Mari.. who?" -, they omitted the fact that the completely destroyed city was once home for nine thousand people and now is the cemetery for Russian troops that exceeds that pre-war city population. The narrative which is devoid of compassion misses what really matters for humankind and the only hope it provides is that there won't be more bloodshed for this small city.

Russian tactics are generally like the moves of a coffeehouse chess master as dubious and risky attacks - like the one in strategically unimportant city Bakhmut - aim to push the opponent to make a mistake. Another such tactic is the cruelty of their military. Russians deliberately target civilians and civilian infrastructure to cause desperation to break Ukrainian  resistance. In addition to that Ukrainian POWs are used as political leverage by refusing  their exchange and as their families receive calls to protest against their government. Moreover attacks on the nuclear reactors and transforming them to shelters for their army, also intends to spread terror.

However, one of the propositions of the invasion was that there was no separate Ukrainian nationality. The atrocities on the civilians and corrupt battlefield conduct like executing surrendered soldiers, separates two nations further away. Indeed, the inhumane conduct of the war led for the first time Ukrainian orthodox christians to celebrate Christmas on December 25th instead of January 7th distancing themselves from the Russian heritage.   

Fortunately time heals all wounds. President Putin is the relic of the cold war and could not invent any new stratagem than the ones used by the Soviet Union. Today he is 71 years old and the top Russian leadership also is a gerontocracy of the remnants of the KGB. 

Moreover, Russian demography is also afflicted with ageing. From 1993 to 2007, the fertility rate of the Russian ethnicity fell below 1.5 in comparison to the 2.1 that is necessary to keep a  population stable. The effect of this decline is visible today. The Russians between the ages of 30 and 34 are 12.5 million in comparison to 6.5 million people who are between the ages of 20 and 24. In a population of 143 millions, the decrease in the population who are able to bear children is the sure sign of trouble. Indeed President Putin, despite all his habitual bravado, needed to initiate the " Special Operation" , otherwise in 10 years, there would not have enough male population for both the defence of the Russian Federation and an offensive operation. 

In fact, the insistence of President Putin in claiming Russians and Ukrainians are the same might be because of this demographic collapse. Ethnic minorities in the Russian Federation are not affected by a decline in fertility rates and also other elements like alcoholism that affect productivity. Given enough time, the Russian population won’t be able to keep its superiority to the other ethnic groups. This is why Putin needs the fresh blood that the invasion of Ukraine may provide. However Ukrainians and the Crimean Tatars are resilient as they could preserve their national identities for centuries and highly unlikely that they will  be the slaves of the Russian colonial ambitions.