^{Kayhan Ozer/Presidential Press Service Pool/AP}

On May 9th, President Erdogan is expected to meet with the American president in the White House. Both presidents previously had met in international meetings but Biden insistently avoided giving an appointment in his official residence.

The long-awaited meeting finally will happen six months to the end of the term of the US president. The approval of Sweden to the accession to NATO by Turkey is a factor in the invitation.

President Erdogan’s balanced policy with the West and Russia was a concern and Turkey's adherence to the Western alliance was begun to be questioned. However, President Erdogan will come to Washington with an inventory that can strengthen their cooperation.

For example, Turkey has established a strong influence on the Southern Caucasus - Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Turkish-Azerbaijani relations are historically strong to the point that they call themselves “One nation two states”. In the Azerbaijani success of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Turkey had played an important role in training the Azerbaijani army and supporting Azerbaijan diplomatically.

In contrast, Turkish-Armenian relations are tense due to historical reasons. Nonetheless there were hopes for the two countries to mend their relations when Armenia and Turkey had competed in the same group in the World Cup qualifiers of 2008. The two countries' presidents watched the matches together.

To normalise the relations a bilateral protocol was signed 4 days before the second game, by the foreign ministers of two countries. However, because of several reasons like the Nagorno-Karabakh region and the border issues between Turkey and Armenia the protocol did not improve the relations. Currently, as the borders with both its neighbours are closed, they have access to the outside world through Georgia. With the return of the disputed region back to Azerbaijan, the relations may slowly normalise.

Turkey is for a long time a crucial partner for Georgia. The Baku -Tbilisi - Kars (BTK) railway connects Azerbaijan to Turkey for oil, gas and cargo trains. Moreover road transportation is essential to access to both Azerbaijan and Russia. The high connectivity of both countries also ensures that in the event of a Russian navy blockading Georgian ports nearby Turkish ports can relieve the pressure. In addition Turkey supports the Georgian army by donating a small amount but highly appreciated financial aid and military equipment.

After the Nagorno-Karabakh war a second route to Azerbaijan through the Zangezur corridor became available and if it continues to stay open it can transform to an alternative trade road that connects Central Asian countries to Europe through Turkey. Actually it is a more viable alternative to the new US-backed India-Middle East trade route proposal. The ongoing HAMAS-Israeli war shows how the trade through the Middle-East can be volatile.

Turkish influence on the South Caucasus grows at the expense of the Russian and this is why a long term Russian ally Armenia turns its face towards the EU and looks for ways to improve their relations.

Another country who is not happy with the changing dynamics in the Caucasus area is Iran. They see Azerbaijan as a rival because of its own Azeri population living in northwestern Iran that borders Iraq and Turkey to the west, and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, Armenia, and the Republic of Azerbaijan to the north. Moreover, Azerbaijan has close ties with Israel. This way Turkey’s influence on the region may have an impact on the Middle-East.

Moreover, Turkey is the second strongest army supported by a solid conscription law that is absent in the majority of Europe, and the ability to build NATO standard ammunition that is highly needed by the West and Ukraine  is another strength. Recently, the US purchased entire 155mm artillery shell production lines from a Turkish defence company for its manufacturing plants in Texas.

In the view of the recent developments, including a NATO without US and unreadiness for such an eventuality, the West do not have the luxury to dismiss partners, especially strong ones that can bring new ones to the group. In addition, Turkey showed that even though they maintain a balanced diplomacy they prefer the West, by ratifying new additions to NATO and also supporting Ukraine.

At the moment Turkey needs Europe to exit from its financial crisis and the West needs a strong ally to keep its Southern borders. President Biden may be the last American President for a while to act to protect EU security and this meeting may prove that.

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