^{dpa/SVEN SIMON/Frank Hoermann}

Germany officially entered the electoral process after the Bundestag - quite expectedly - expressed no confidence in Chancellor Olaf Scholz last week. The parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place in two months. One of the main topics of political debate between the parties is the Russian-Ukrainian war. Another important topic is Ukrainian refugees in the context of migration disputes.

According to polls, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is the absolute leader in the parliamentary race. The party, led by Angela Merkel's eternal rival, Friedrich Merz, together with its Bavarian partners, the CSU, is gaining about 31.5%. They are followed by the right-wing radicals and Russian sympathizers from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 19.5%. Next are the Social Democratic Party (SPD) with 16.5% and the Greens (Die Grüne) with 11.5%. Their recent coalition ally, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), is on the verge of parliamentary survival with 4.5%. And the left-wing populist Sarah Wagenknecht's Union (BSW) is gaining as much as 8%.

Friedrich Merz, a 69-year-old politician and lawyer for large international companies, is already being called the future federal chancellor. The Christian Democrat has gained popularity due to his active criticism of Scholz for the things that voters have also criticized him for: the lack of successful economic reforms, migration policy, and insufficient support for Ukraine.

^{Friedrich Merz, photo: Welt TV}

In its program, the CDU/CSU calls the accession of Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans to the EU “Germany's security and geopolitical interests.” The supply of weapons to the Ukrainian military, as well as financial, humanitarian, and diplomatic assistance to Kyiv, are also included in the party's election plan. This most likely includes the provision of German Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, which Merz himself has repeatedly promised if he wins. To strengthen Ukraine, his fellow party members also propose creating a contact group with France, Poland, and the United Kingdom. The group, according to the program, should develop a strategy for “reliable security guarantees for Ukraine” in close cooperation with the United States. In addition, the Christian Democrats plan to further expand and strengthen sanctions against Putin's government.

For Ukrainian asylum seekers in Germany, the news is less optimistic. The center-right has strongly advocated for the transfer of newly arrived Ukrainians from the status of “unemployed German” to “refugee.” An Asylbewerber (refugee candidate) also receives the right to accommodation and medical care upon arrival, but will be paid significantly less money to live on than the “unemployed.” To earn money on their own, they will have to wait. Refugee status is granted no sooner than two years after the application is submitted. During this time, a person has no right to work or leave Germany. The answer to the application may be negative, and if you are “lucky” it will be impossible to return to Ukraine. The person is deprived of Ukrainian documents and issued a German residence permit instead. The Union explains such radical measures as “the need to integrate Ukrainians into the labor market faster.” The argument “I can't work because I don't know the language” is no longer relevant: according to the Christian Democrats, German can be learned at work.

The alternative for Germany was not particularly surprising with its draft program. Right-wing radicals call Russia a reliable gas supplier and an important trading partner. The candidate for chancellor from the AfD, 45-year-old Alice Weidel, believes that Ukrainian resistance to Russian aggression is an economic war against the Germans. Alternatives see salvation in Germany's rapid withdrawal from the EU and in the rejection of the euro in favor of the return of the German mark. In addition, the neo-Nazis call the lifting of all sanctions against Russia and the resumption of Nord Stream 2 immediately. At the same time, the AfD program does not pay much attention to Ukraine itself, mentioning it only as a “failed project.” Ukraine is supposed to become “neutral” and has no place in NATO and the EU.

^{Alice Weidel, photo: Christoph Schmidt/dpa}

For Ukrainian refugees, the Alternative's proposal is very similar to that of its right-wing rivals. Like the CDU, Weidel's party proposes to take away the rights of Ukrainian citizens to Bürgerheld (financial support for the unemployed) and transfer them to the refugee category. The only difference is that the Christian Democrats outlined such measures for “newly arrived” Ukrainians. Instead, the right-wing radicals dream of this for those of our citizens who have been already integrating into German society, and new asylum seekers from Ukraine are not even in the picture. Under the imaginary rule of the AfD, Ukrainian citizens will have no chance of getting to Germany even as refugees. They will be denied asylum right at the border.

The good news is that none of the parties wants a coalition with Alternative for Germany, and Putin's lovers themselves are unable to get enough votes to form a government.

Despite the scandal of the parliamentary no-confidence motion, the Social Democratic Party decided to run for the second consecutive election under Olaf Scholz's leadership. However, the 66-year-old politician has few chances to lead the government this time. Instead, his party predicts a coalition partnership with Merz's party. During the existence of modern Germany, the black and red or “Grand” coalition has already formed a government four times, three of which were under Angela Merkel.

^{Олаф Шольц, фото: faz.net}

For the 2025 elections, the Reds are repeating word for word the CDU's theses on Ukraine and Moldova's accession to the EU and on financial and military assistance to Kyiv. However, with a caveat: no Tauruses for Ukraine. Between the lines in the draft program, one can find an explanation for this position. “The war should not lead to a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia.”

The SPD document does not mention any changes to the current status of Ukrainians in Germany. Unlike the CDU and the AfD, Scholz's party hardly ever proclaims anti-refugee theses. In the program, the Social Democrats only propose to resolve the situation with uncontrolled migration and improve the labor market for asylum seekers, including through digitalization and speeding up the procedures for granting refugee status.

The Alliance 90/Greens shares the center-left views of the SPD. But the ruling coalition with the CDU will likely have room for only one of them. However, given the latest figures, a united government of the Christian Democrats and the Greens is currently possible only with the support of the Free Democrats.

The party of the current Vice Chancellor and Minister of Economy Robert Habeck demonstrates perhaps the boldest position on Ukraine in its program. The document, in addition to supporting our country's accession to the EU, also calls for its membership in NATO. And in their diplomatic efforts, eco-politicians profess the idea of “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine” and a significant increase in pressure on Russia. Greens call Russia “the biggest threat to security and peace in Europe.” Another Green leader, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, also called on the Scholz government to provide Ukraine with Taurus missiles, but found no support from the Social Democrats.

^{Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck, photo: zdf.de}

In their program for the 2025 elections, the Greens call Germany “a country of migration that is part of the economic and social strength of the state.” Like the Social Democrats, Habeck and Baerbock's party advocates digitalization and reducing the time spent on bureaucratic procedures. According to the Greens, the German economy needs to quickly attract numerous foreign skilled workers. This is probably why eco-politicians criticized Merz's idea to transfer Ukrainians to the status of “refugees” and deprive them of their “Bürgerheld”.

The left-wing populist Sarah Wagenknecht's Union for a Better Europe has already called the topic of “war and peace” the central issue of its policy at the presentation of its election campaign. Wagenknecht, 55, is competing with her main rivals from the Alternative for Germany in her desire to be friends with Russia. Sarah Wagenknecht devotes more than 60% of her media statements to rapprochement with the Kremlin and peace in Ukraine at any cost. Putin's favorite accuses the United States, Britain, and the current German government of allowing missile strikes against Russia, threatens nuclear war, but has no complaints against the Kremlin. Moreover, the far left is demanding a ban on the deployment of American missiles in Germany. Of course, Sarah does not see Ukraine in Europe, calling it “a bottomless pit for German taxpayers.”

^{Sarah Wagenknecht, photo: ddp}

Wagenknecht has repeatedly stated that Ukrainians in Germany abuse financial aid and suggested cutting it. She has not expressed any ideas to restrict the entry of Ukrainians into Germany, but she proposes to significantly reduce the overall flow of migrants.

Over the past year, the Free Democratic Party has significantly lost electoral support and failed to win elections to regional parliaments in three federal states in eastern Germany. The scandalous dismissal of its leader, now former Finance Minister Christian Lindner, also did not help the party's popularity. Scholz initiated the resignation of the country's chief financier as a result of Lindner's demand to cut taxes and reduce social spending in the next year's budget. Scholz and Habeck called this unacceptable, and the “traffic light” coalition collapsed. Now, according to various polls, the Free Democrats are hovering between 3 and 5 percent, which means they face a high risk of not being elected to the Bundestag. If successful, however, the Liberals could help the Greens form a government with the CDU/CSU. This scenario is the second most likely after the “Merz-Scholz cabinet” scenario.

^{Christian Lindner, photo: Facebook page of Christian Lindner}

In their election program, the Free Democrats also demand to provide Ukraine with Tauruses. They also demand that financial support for Ukraine be distributed equally among all EU, NATO, and G7 countries, and that it be provided, among other things, at the expense of frozen Russian assets. “Putin's Russia is our enemy,” the document says, along with the expected “yes” to Ukraine in the European Union. And liberals call Nord Stream 1 and 2 a premeditated geopolitical tool of the Russian dictator.

As for refugees, liberals are in solidarity with the Greens: “Our country depends on immigration to the labor market.” The program does not specifically mention Ukrainian citizens in Germany. However, Lindner's party, like its partners in the former coalition, does not support Merz's idea of tighter integration of Ukrainians.

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍