Opposition rallies in Istanbul in support of the imprisoned mayor Ekrem Imamoglu have moved from the city hall to the Asian outskirts of the metropolis, Maltepe. The leader of the Republican People's Party, Özgür Özel, claims that a record 2 million 200 thousand people joined the anti-government protest on Saturday. Özer promised to collect signatures for the CHP presidential candidate Imamoglu in such a number that it would surpass Erdogan's result in the last presidential election in 2023. The signature campaign will not have any legal consequences, but if the opposition does manage to present at least 28 million autographs of Turkish citizens (Erdogan received 27 million 800 thousand), it will create psychological pressure on the authorities. The opposition's goal is to force Erdogan to hold “new elections” in the fall of 2025.

One of Turkey's most famous journalists and writers, Yilmaz Özdil, jokes that during the republican era, Turkey was ruled by three A's: “Allah, Ataturk, and America”.

Erdogan came to power with the first A, after the 2016 coup attempt he reconciled with the second A (and considers himself the only successor to Ataturk in 100 years), and only the third A guarantees the Turkish leader a level of freedom of action within the country.

Trump's election has strengthened Erdogan's position. Turkey is restraining Iran. It is able to conduct military operations in Iraq and Syria, controlling the influence of Moscow and Tehran in the region. Trump is hardly interested in the Kurds; on the contrary, only rich, capable oil monarchies and Israel matter to Washington now. In fact, if not for Hamas's bloody provocation on October 7, 2023, Abraham's agreements could have enriched this entire group of Sunni monarchies, Turkey, Israel, America and its allies. The Palestinians, to quote Trump, have no cards left in their hands, so their greatest defender Erdogan and the one who voiced the idea of deportation, Trump, will work together to force Gaza to peace. This means that Recep Bey can do whatever he wants inside the country. Ankara no longer faces financial sanctions for violating democratic standards, but rather a quick return to the F-35 project is likely.

Europe could be a defender of democratic values and an ally of the opposition. However, over the past 20 years, it has used all the levers of influence on Ankara, i.e., to continue using the terminology of the American leader, it has played all the cards. Turkey has fulfilled 75 points of the EU's requirements to get a short-term visa-free regime for its citizens. There is no visa-free travel. Turkey has been diligently stemming the flow of refugees from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan to Europe, but there have been no changes to the Customs Union agreement with the EU. And now that Putin is threatening not only Ukraine but the entire continent, Europe is only beginning to think about long-term rearmament and training of its armies. The Turkish army has been at war for 40 years, including on the territories of two neighboring countries. The 27 countries of the European Union do not have this experience, and they need Turkey as a truly decisive player in the “coalition of the resolute.” Therefore, the world is likely to see Brussels' deep concern over the events in Turkey, but will accept whatever Recep Erdogan does with Ekrem Imamoglu and the protesters.

A harsh crackdown on street protests could play a cruel joke on the Turkish leader himself. He will not abandon the elections and will recognize their result in any case. The crackdown on millions of protesters will be the end of Erdogan's re-election campaign. Ballot box votes are the holy grail of Turkish political culture, which neither Ismet Inönü nor Adnan Menderes dared to distort, and neither has Recep Erdoğan. Respect for citizens' choices is the core that keeps Turkish society united across ideological and ethnic divides, and it is what distinguishes Turkey from the surrounding authoritarian regimes. If the opposition does not have a long-term scenario, unexpected plot twists, and the ability to quickly intercept the government's PR actions in the economic sphere, the Turkish weather will soon play on the side of the government. The heat wave that has already hit the southern regions of the country will reach Istanbul in mid-April. Most likely, young people aged 18-25, who are the core of the protests and are now firmly opposed to the police, will soon turn the rallies into picnics and then head to the Aegean and Mediterranean beaches. This already happened during the 2013 Gezi. Only a few thousand of the most stubborn will remain on the streets. And it will turn out that among them are only “Trotskyists” or “Soros agents”. They will be dispersed by the police. Happy (for Erdogan) end.