South Korea's colorful political life is in some ways similar to its cinematography. It has a lot of scandals, and imprisoned presidents are no surprise, but last night will go down in history as the shortest and most absurd attempt to return to military dictatorship. 

To understand what made Yoon Suk Yeol, a former prosecutor who staged a mock trial against the then-dictatorial president, do something potentially criminal himself, we need to recall the details of his rise to power. He won the election in 2022 by 0.7 percent, the smallest margin in South Korean history. The person who lost to him, Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung, has been convicted of bribery since late 2022. Lee and his fellow party members called it political persecution from the very beginning. Even better than his lawyers, Lee was defended by his own Democratic Party, which won a majority of seats in the last election: the votes to lift Lee's parliamentary immunity and arrest him were lacking for months. Last year, Lee went on an indefinite hunger strike because he disagreed with President Yoon's ineffective economic policies; less than a month later, he was taken to the hospital and arrested again. The new charges now involved North Korea: Lee was allegedly linked to a company that had illegally transferred $8 million to the DPRK. As soon as Lee ended his hunger strike, which doctors called life-threatening, the Minister of Justice issued a warrant for his arrest, having obtained the necessary minimum votes in parliament. Li spent several days in a cell, and then was released right out of the courtroom after a grueling, hours-long hearing: the judges ultimately saw no reason to detain him. And then the parliament, or rather the Democratic Party, which Li heads, decided to impeach the country's chief prosecutors who had been working on his case.

And then President Yoon lost his patience.

Scandals, intrigues, investigations 

On May 10, 2022, Yoon Suk Yeol took the oath of office in front of the National Assembly and swore to defend freedom and democracy. But even then, many Koreans had doubts that this oath was sincere. Even during the election campaign, he was accused of having ordered his subordinates to file politically motivated reports against Democratic Party politicians and journalists friendly to the party while serving as attorney general. He also called the last dictator of South Korea, Chun Doo-hwan, a successful politician, whom he had opposed as a student. This caused massive outrage, and he even had to apologize for his statement. 

Already in the summer of 2022, he proposed to create a so-called "police bureau" - a structure that should provide better government control - and faced fierce opposition from law enforcement officials who claim that this will not allow the police to remain neutral. Next, the healthcare sector collapsed, which is not Yoon Seok-yeol's fault personally, because the main reason is that South Korea is the world leader in terms of population aging, and they have been trying to overcome this for years, but - with almost zero migration to the country - so far without success. Next, the president forced his foreign ministry to sue a major broadcasting corporation over a video in which he allegedly insulted Joe Biden behind his back. The German edition of the Berliner Morgenpost calls Yoon Seok Yeol the Korean Donald Trump, which was immediately noticed in his homeland. The Swedish monitoring institute V-Dem notes that under President Yoon, South Korea has seen a renewed crackdown on freedom of speech. He is accused of abusing the veto power and numerous political trials against his rivals. And then there is the scandal with Yoon's wife, who is 12 years younger than him: Kim Kong-hee is initially accused of manipulating the shares of an automobile company, but she is the only one of all those accused in this case to be completely acquitted. Her academic papers are scrutinized for plagiarism and argued over. She was gifted a $2,000 Dior bag and the video was posted online: the very fact that she accepted the gift violates South Korea's anti-corruption laws and further tarnishes her husband's reputation. In April, Yoon Suk Yeol's Conservative Party loses the parliamentary elections in a landslide, and he becomes the first South Korean president in many years to not control the parliament. The opposition refuses to approve his budget, and his prospects are bleak: 800,000 Koreans have already signed a petition to impeach the president! His rating is less than 20 percent... but it is still unclear why Yoon Seok Yeol decided to fight the opposition right now and in this way. Without warning his main partner, the United States, late in the evening, he released an address that chills the blood of the entire country. And what's more, half the world. "To protect liberal South Korea from threats emanating from North Korea's communist forces and to eliminate anti-state elements, I am declaring martial law," he says. 

North Korea should have been the most surprised, as there has been no escalation, no matter how small, in the past few days. 

Parliamentary elections

Last year, the Korean cinemas were filled with the blockbuster film Seoul Spring, about martial law declared in 1979 after the assassination of President Park. It is an intense political thriller based on a true story. Martial law was followed by years of repression against dissidents, until the late eighties, when parliamentary democracy prevailed in Korea. Thousands of Koreans last night felt the urge to pinch themselves to make sure that they were not the characters in the movie, that they were listening to the president's announcement, that it was real wartime. 

This announcement has two obvious consequences: South Korean stocks immediately drop by 5 percent, and parliamentarians realize they must get to the National Assembly building immediately. That is where the military will immediately go with an obvious order: to disrupt the work of the parliament. The leader of the Democratic Party, Lee Jae-myung, is addressing people from his car with the words "Now tanks, armored infantry vehicles, and soldiers armed with rifles will rule South Korea" and urges everyone to hurry to the National Assembly to protect democracy. All Koreans over 50 remember the tragedy in Gwangju, where a demonstration against the dictatorship was suppressed in May 1980. According to various estimates, from 100 to 2000 people died there. That is why, despite the late hour, people gather near the parliament almost immediately. The deputies' assistants barricade the entrance as best they can, fighting off the soldiers with fire extinguishers. The soldiers have to sneak in through the windows, grabbing them by the muzzles of their rifles and filming them on hundreds of phones, which does not help their confidence. There are no clashes or injuries. Lee Jae-myung posts a video on social media of himself climbing over a one-and-a-half-meter fence to get into the parliament building by the back door. Other lawmakers follow his example, and many are helped by protesters. At this time, the American ambassador to South Korea writes: "The situation is developing extremely quickly." Joe Biden is informed of what is happening. The U.S. State Department emphasizes that Washington knew nothing about it. 

It is still unclear why, having decided to declare martial law, President Yoon did not think in advance about how he was going to guarantee it. But even his own Conservative Party immediately dissociated itself from this decision, stating that it would vote with the opposition to repeal it. At 1 a.m., 190 out of 190 MPs who managed to sneak into the parliamentary hall managed to vote against martial law. The military leaves the parliament without having properly surrounded it. 

The President is forced to address the people for the second time. And to announce that he will cancel martial law... as soon as his cabinet gathers in the morning. 

The entire presidential staff resigns.

A self-fulfilling prophecy

To no one's surprise, the next morning six opposition parties register a motion to impeach President Yoon. His rival Lee warns that the fact that the first attempt failed does not mean that the president will not dare to make a second one. Moreover, he may deliberately provoke a conflict with North Korea to legitimize his actions. So, no matter what happens next, one of the world's most developed economies bordering one of the most authoritarian states (and still formally at war with it) will remain paralyzed in the coming weeks. Therefore, any further attempts by Ukraine soon to seek military support from South Korea, now that North Korea is helping Russia, are doomed to failure. At the most uncertain moment in global history, almost on the brink of World War III, South Korea will be busy for the next 3-4 months getting rid of the old president and electing a new one.

Even during the election campaign, Yoon Suk Yeol (officially a Catholic, who makes up about 10% of the population in South Korea) was seen several times wearing a "hancha" sign (a separate writing system based on Chinese characters), which means "king". His opponents immediately accused Yoon of seeking help from shamans. Just like his predecessor, Park Geun-hye, whom he once helped imprison. At the time, Yoon categorically denied these rumors. 

But nothing but superstitious advice (or a complete lie) can explain the declaration of martial law, which even the army was in no hurry to implement.

Whatever President Yoon may have had in mind, he has equally harmed himself, the state, and all its partners with this sudden decision at the worst possible time.

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