On Sunday July 28th, the Venezuelan Presidential Elections were held. An exit poll projected that opposition candidate Edmundo González of the Unitary Platform will win with 65% against the current President Nicolás Maduro. On Monday the National Electoral Council (CNE) declared that Maduro was the winner with 51.2% of the votes and the opposition leader had obtained 44.2% of the votes. Upon the announcement of Maduro victory, protests have broken out across the country.

For the last 14 years, Venezuela has experienced a socioeconomic and political crisis. The roots of the crisis began during the term of the previous President Hugo Chávez and deepened during the term of Madura who both followed left-wing populist politics. The period is called the crisis of Venezuela and resulted in hyperinflation, starvation, collapse of the medical care system, and an increase in crime. Decreasing in the oil prices and countries productivity exacerbated the problem as the economy of the country relies heavily on oil exports.

The opposition is violently repressed, extrajudicial killings increased and political corruption deepened. More than 7.7 million people, which is one third of the country's population, have emigrated from Venezuela, mainly to the neighbouring countries - Colombia, Peru and Brazil. After the latest election it is expected that more Venezuelians will leave their country. 

The United States, the European Union (E.U.), Canada, Mexico, Panama and Switzerland reacted to the repression of the opposition with sanctions. The sanctions were counterbalanced to some extent by the support of the countries like Russia, Cuba, and China. The Biden administration has lifted the sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry as Maduro promised for free and fair elections for 2024. 

However, just six months after the sanctions were reimposed because opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who is supported strongly by the Venezuelans according to the polls, was disqualified from the elections. Moreover, regime critics, members of Machado's campaign team have been jailed and millions of citizens blocked from registering to vote.

The impact of sanctions is disputed on many levels - on the economy and on the welfare of the Venezuelans. The sanctions on the oil sector undoubtedly cripples the regime’s economy as more than 90% of Venezuelan exports are derived from the oil sales. However the humanitarian impact is highly questionable. In the capital city Caracas, 15-20% of the population do not have access to clean water in their homes because of the lack of new parts to repair the piping system. While the wealthy and the regime leadership who have access to USD are not affected by the hyperinflation, the poor are severely affected by the economic downfall of the sanctions.

While President Maduro and his Minister of Defence worked to consolidate the election results by intimidating them with “bloodbath” and “100 years in jail”, only nine countries recognised his victory including China and Russia. Unfortunately they are decisive in what they promised, already an arrest order for Machado is signed and the police forces began to shoot the protesters. There are some security forces in remote villages who join the side of the protesters, but at the moment  these look like isolated incidents.

Maduro claims “I know how to confront this situation and defeat those who are violent.” and also that “the majority of the protestors were hate-filled criminals and that their plan was hatched in the US”. Indeed the President is experienced in breaking up the protests in 2014, 2017 and 2018. 

At the moment US President Biden is careful not to make committing remarks. His administration expressed their concerns on the election results but avoided calling it fraudulent but Republican congress members press for sanctions under the pressure of their Venezuelan voters. 

The reason behind the hesitance may be the fear that further destabilisation of the Maduro regime may provoke another surge of immigrants and they may head up to the US soil. However a poll showed that 45% of the Venezuelians who intend to immigrate would reconsider it if the elections would bring a regime change. Another reason may be they may still have a hope that Maduro may come to a compromise with the opposition.

There are certain similarities with the 2020 elections in Belarus as several candidates were refused to participate in the race and accusations of a rigged election. However the main difference that may matter is the attitude of the protesters. Belarusian protesters were generally peaceful with their flowers, but in Venezuela protesters tend to be more violent in their reaction. While flowers are a plea for democracy, throwing stones and Molotov cocktails is a demand for democracy. Only the persistence of the protesters will decide the fate of Venezuela.

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