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Last week, the leaders of NATO met in Washington to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the alliance. Summit decided that Ukraine will receive a minimum of 43 billion USD in military aid within the next year but stop short of a pledge for the coming years.

Ukraine’s membership to the alliance is declared as irreversible provided that Kyiv continues the democratic, economic and security reforms. Training of the Ukrainian military personnel and the coordination of the military equipment will be undertaken by NATO instead of the current provisional US led-alliance to safeguard the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House.

China and Belarus are described as enablers of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Belarus Enables Russian coercive nuclear rhetoric by allowing the stationing of nuclear weapons. China is the decisive enabler since it supplies material and political support for Russia's war effort.

Just on the eve of the summit the bigger and smaller enablers of the Russian war had started joint military exercises in Belarus, five kilometres from the Polish border. According to Belarus, the drills are a response to the "West's aggressive foreign policy towards Belarus" and to "Ukrainian provocation". China’s motivations are thought to be against strengthening the ties between NATO and the four Indo Pacific partners - Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea.

China criticised being described as the decisive enabler and urged NATO to reflect on the root cause of the crisis. The gaslighting comment most probably finds a parallel with the Russian accusation of NATO’s expansionist moves with its relations with the Indo Pacific partners.

US President Joe Biden’s performance was also closely observed by the leaders. Although the French President and British Prime Minister found him in good form, Biden put a shadow to their evaluations while presenting Volodymyr Zelensky as President Putin and referring to his vice President Kamala Harris "Vice-President Trump".

Although Ukraine’s membership to NATO is declared irreversible and stronger in tone than the previous summits, it was first pronounced in 2008 NATO Bucharest summit. Irreversible or not with the current speed of progress Ukraine may expect to be a member in the second half of the century. While the United States and Germany emphasise the importance of domestic reforms, the most important condition for membership would be the end of the war.

Nonetheless these reforms are also necessary for EU access and they are necessary for an efficient administration that is vital for Ukraine.

Institutionalisation of the Western support and military training through NATO is a weak insurance for the continuation of the support. As the US provides half of the aid to Ukraine, in the case of re-election Donald Trump would have little difficulty in cancelling US pledges.

The promised $43bn in military aid including F-16s and Patriot systems are not negligible but are they enough? The Netherlands and Denmark promised 85 F-16s but according to President Zelensky at least 130 is necessary to fend off the Russian air force and protect against glide bomb attacks. Four more Patriot systems also may not be enough to secure Ukrainian airspace but may help protect the fighter jets when on the ground.

The Ukrainian war effort heavily relies on the Western aid but so far it is neither enough nor in time. Maybe the key is in the words of President Biden: “But make no mistake, Ukraine can and will stop Putin, especially with our full, collective support”. If the full support is given to stop Putin, it will never be enough. The West should decide if they are supporting Ukraine to win the war or not to lose the war and also should realise that this war can be either won or lost. The progress achieved so far does little to improve the credibility of the alliance’s intention.