^{photo: Reuters}

Last weekend the tenth of the European Union parliamentary elections were held. According to the provisional results, the centre right European People’s Party (EPP), the centre left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group, and the liberal Renew group kept their positions as the three largest groups in the Parliament. While any single group does not have the necessary 361 seats for a majority, the EPP group with 186 seats is the strongest group in the 720 member European Parliament.

The European Parliament is one of the three main political institutions that run the 27-nation union and its most important role is reviewing and approving new legislation. Although it does not wield as much power as the Commission or national governments of the member states, it can reject or amend legislations, and also as it is the only directly elected EU institution has an important political influence.

European citizens vote for their national parties to elect their representatives - members of the European parliament (MEPs) -  that will form international blocs in the parliament. There are seven groups representing every shade of the political spectrum from far left to the far right. This year as predicted far right parties obtained a significant success in Italy, France and Germany at the expense of liberal and green parties. The coming months will reveal how the groups will be formed in the new parliament and whether the far right MEPs will be able to form a group strong enough to influence EU decisions.

Although the attendance in the last elections increased from 42% to 50%, it was hailed as a sign that the elections really matter for the Europeans boosting its credibility and legitimacy, it did not change the fact that half of the population did not care to go to ballots. This year too the attendance showed that the elections did not mean much as it stayed at 50%.

Despite the fact that far right parties increased their votes, their seats in the EU parliament just increased marginally. The concern is that EPP previously collaborated with the centrists, social democrats and the greens as they were stronger. Now conservatives may resonate better with the far right especially on the topics of migration policy, environmental regulations and the war in Ukraine. This may reflect itself in adopting legislation more aligned with the far right and also in the normalisation of their rhetoric.

However the real impact of the election is in the domestic politics of the nations. The far right performance was not uniform throughout the union. Actually in the Nordic countries left-wing parties gained significant ground. In contrast, in the largest economies of the EU, French President Emanual Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost heavily against the far right.

The reactions of the two Presidents were in stark contrast as Macron immediately called a snap Parliamentary election, Sholz preferred to disappear instead of acknowledging and acting on his failure. The leaders of the two nations were also divergent in their attitude towards their support of Ukraine. While Macron advocated 'strategic ambiguity' in troop deployment and use of west supplied military equipment to be used in Russian territory, Scholz always waited for the first step from the US for the supply of critical weapons and made clear the position of Germany.

The two leaders represent the two main political attitudes in the West. The ones who evaluate Macron’s strategic ambiguity as too perilous as it may evolve to a direct confrontation with Russia, also evaluate the dissolution of the parliament as a gamble as the nuclear threat for them is the success of the far right and consolidation of their ascendance to power.

There may be several reasons behind Macron’s decision. The President himself called it “an act of confidence to make the best choice for themselves and for future generations”. Indeed his decision may encourage responsibility over tantrums and may prevent the consolidation of the protest votes against his unpopular policies  in the radical parties and revert them back to moderates.

Even if the far right wins the election he would continue to be president and leave the solution of every difficult problem from pensions to immigration to the winners. Their failure would expose their ineptitude and unfitness to govern. However, populists are very competent to find excuses for their failures and could claim that if they had the presidency they would be successful.

Whatever President Macron’s reasoning might be, he showed that he is able to take swift decisions. As Cicero wrote “More is lost by indecision than wrong decision.” Macron’s domestic policies may be highly unpopular but he repeatedly demonstrates that he can take difficult decisions proving his value as a leader. As France and Germany are rivals for the leadership of the EU, Macron might twist the French public opinion to his favour and gain considerable influence both domestically and internationally.

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