^{Photo: ТСН.ua}

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Last week, the US and Germany crossed another red line and granted conditional permission to Ukraine to use the weapons they have supplied to strike inside Russia.

For the moment US and German-supplied weapons can only be used against military targets on the Russian side of the border around northeastern Kharkiv region. In this region the Russian Belgorod city is used as a logistic hub for the invasion and recently Russia began to amass troops near the border with Ukraine possibly to expand their offensive that began in early May towards Kharkiv city. During the week-end it was reported that Ukraine had hit an S-300/400 air defence battery in the Belgorod oblast possibly with US-supplied HIMARS.

The conditional yes of the US allows the use of only air defence systems, artillery and guided rockets. The longer range missiles like ATACMS are still banned to be used. The other Western countries were more liberal in the usage of the equipment they supplied. 24 F-16 fighter planes by Netherland and Soviet-era planes supplied by Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia and Northern Macedonia were already permitted to be used on the Russian territory. France also allowed their cruise missiles (SCALP) to be launched by these planes. Turkish and British drones had been previously allowed to be used on Russian soil.

However the permissions won’t be a game-changer just will allow Ukraine to contain the coming offensive. HIMARS and Soviet era jets equipped with SCALPs may allow Ukraine to disrupt Russian logistic lines which is vital for any military operations. However many technologies are either incompatible with Ukraine military organisation or unsuitable for the conditions in Ukraine. For example, F-16 jets require much higher standards for their airfields than the donated Soviet era planes which makes them much harder to operate and protect.

French President Emmanuel Macron is the leading western leader who defended Ukraine's right to hit military target’s in Russian soil. In his recent visit to Germany he reiterated his conviction to chancellor Olaf Scholz. However, the chancellor only accepted the idea after the US. Now, the German weapons including self-propelled howitzers and Mars II rocket launchers can be used but German air-launched cruise missiles, Taurus, are still refused to Ukraine.

The reason for every redline is to prevent further escalation of the war in Ukraine and bring NATO in direct confrontation with Russia. Indeed, each time a red line is crossed or considered to cross, Russia rattles its nuclear sabre. For many, Russian nuclear threats are bluffs. Indeed tactical nuclear weapons are not effective on the battlefield in Ukraine. Since their troops are diffused over a long battlefront and nuclear weapons won’t be able to inflict devastating damage, it will deny a region the access of both armies. Similarly the deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus also does not give a critical advantage to Russia neither in range as the nuclear missiles may target anywhere on Earth nor a significant response time advantage, if Russian supersonic missiles are as effective as they claim.

So why now, the West goes against a taboo that is held since the beginning of the conflict. Ukraine used exposure therapy by striking oil plants deep inside Russian soils. At first US officials had urged Ukraine to halt strikes amid concerns about global oil prices and possible retaliation. Since the drones used in the attacks were homemade, President Zelensky refused to obey the US. Again France had a hawkish attitude and supported Ukraine's right of self-defence.

The Ukrainian strategy disrupted at least 10% of Russian oil refinery capacity raising the gasoline price by 1.88%. Even the Kremlin had to impose a six-month ban on gasoline exports. These attacks not only showed the inadequacies in Russia’s air defences and their reliance on Western Technologies to repair the damage  but also proved their reluctance in using nuclear weapons.

Another reason may be that since the beginning of the war for a second time Russia initiated an attack directly from its borders. Although it is not pronounced it may have been perceived as a second invasion. Moreover, together with the ammunition shortages and lack of a strong defensive line, Ukraine faces risks of losing more territory.

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