Over the last decade Turkish military Industry experiences a rapid development and a jump in its exports. Although the defence industry of Turkey can be traced back to the golden age of the Ottoman Empire, little was inherited from this predecessor state. Up from the 17th century to its demise, the Empire was well behind the technological developments in Europe and its industry had no impact in the beginning of WWI. 

In the early years of the Republic and well into the 1960s, the lack of resources prevented the development in the military industry. The Cyprus crises in 1963 and 1967, following the invasion of Cyprus in 1974  proved the importance of self-reliance in the defence industry. The foundation of Turkish Aircraft Industries Corporation (TAI) in 1973, was followed by ASELSAN (1975), ISBIR (1978), ASPILSAN (1981), HAVELSAN (1982) and ROKETSAN (1988).

Despite the recent conflict on the procurement of F-16 fighter jets from the US, between 1984 to 1995 Turkey was involved in the production of these fighter jets - 232 jets were assembled and 80% of the fuselage was domestically produced. Even 46 units were sold to Egypt with the permission of the USA.  

While Turkey strives to be self-reliant in the production of military hardware, it also develops its own concept and technologies. The most famous product of recent years is the Bayraktar-TB2 drone which is used extensively in Ukraine and was a game changer in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. Turkey also develops its own fourth generation main battle-tank Altay and air superiority fighter TAI Kaan.

The ambition for self-reliance is supported with the increased defence spending from US$7.22 billion in 2001 to US$40 billion in 2024.  According to governmental sources, the Turkish defence industry reached a self-sufficiency of 80% in 2023. However, the ongoing economic crisis that began with the application of unorthodox economic policies and the scale of Turkish defence market limits the growth and the support of the national defence industry. Because of these limitations, the Turkish defence industry is highly dependent on exports for its sustainability.

Turkish industry has an inherent weakness that is a dependence for the imports of intermediate goods to produce end products. The same dependency also exists for its defence industry as it depends on foreign procurement of the necessary high technology materials such as semiconductors and microchips. In addition to that Turkey lacks the domestic energy resources which are imported from Russia.

Turkey is involved in numerous defence and security projects that enable cooperation with NATO members. However, lack of cohesion in the foreign policies negatively affects the collaborations. For example the purchase of the S400 surface-to-air defence system from Russia excluded Turkey from the production F35 jet fighter program that would otherwise benefit the industry for both acquiring know-how and the development of the production capacities. 

On the other hand, the ongoing war in Ukraine increases the demand for weapons and ammunition. Turkish foreign diplomacy may not be coherent, but it is highly flexible. Turkish Baykar drone company started building a drone factory in Kyiv, and also Turkey produces corvettes for the Ukrainian navy. Current ammunition shortage undoubtedly will benefit the Turkish industry that manufactures its 155 mm howitzers and shells.

Turkey’s biggest challenge is its frail economy. Over the last five years, the Turkish lira has lost more than 80% of its value against the US dollar which increased import and foreign debt costs and weakened the purchasing power of ordinary Turkish people. GDP per capita was $10,607 in 2022, which was $12,479 a decade earlier.The unemployment rate is 8.8%, but this value hides the real numbers as it is calculated measuring only  the number of people actively looking for a job but not the ones who lost hopes of finding one.

Impoverishment caused by high inflation and currency collapse, together with the abandoning of secular democracy for sectarian authoritarianism causes the second important challenge which is the brain drain. A growing number of young and educated people are looking to leave. In 2022, 139,531 Turkish citizens left the country, the number was 77,810 in 2020. A high proportion of the immigration is composed of highly trained individuals such as medical professionals and IT specialists.

It is rather understandable that deficiencies of the economy and industry compel Turkey to follow a balanced foreign policy between the West and the East. On the other hand, the policy is also quite assertive in the regions where the current regime considers them as its natural influence areas like Syria and Libya.  This is why current Turkish foreign diplomacy is described as Neo-Ottomanism. Moreover this tendency is one of the influences of the development efforts in the military industry supporting the chauvinistic rhetoric which is preeminent in Turkish politics.

Nonetheless, Turkey is the 19th largest economy in the world, with a GDP of roughly $906 billion and twelfth-largest arms exporter. In addition, it has the second largest army in NATO. 

Although youth unemployment, which neither contributes to the work force nor takes any education, is a negative factor, it could be turned into an advantage in the current geo-political environment.

In 2002, Hungarian-American billionaire, George Soros in a speech he gave in a Turkish university said that 'Due to its strategic location, Turkey's best export product is its army'. The comment had a quite negative impact at the time, but considering the developments 22 years later Turkey may be in that position.

While Europe is struggling to ramp up its military industry and lacks the man force to build up their army to defend against a Russian threat, Turkey has already a fast developing military industry and an impoverished unqualified young population. Moreover, Neo-Ottoman politics is ready to consider Crimea and Caucasus as its influence areas and their claim would have a more historical basis than President Putin’s pseudo scientific claims.

However cynical, it is well possible that Turkey and Europe may complement each other like pieces of a jigsaw. Even one thinks that the illogical economic policies pushed by the Turkish President was a well calculated step to create these conditions.

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