^{Photo: AFP}

One of the items of President Zelensky’s “Victory Plan” is to secure an invitation to join the NATO military alliance. According to the French daily newspaper Le Monde reported on Saturday, the USA "no longer have any objections in principle to a simple invitation". NATO membership is at the centre for any ceasefire as a deterrence against the restart of fighting. As Zelensky said the deterrence has to be as strong as either NATO or nuclear weapons. Since the allies are reluctant to allow their long range military equipment to target inside Russia, nuclear weapons are out of question if Ukraine won’t build its own.

Although there are ardent supporters of Ukraine’s membership in the alliance, this does not mean that the “simple invitation” is any closer than a week ago. First of all, even though Zelensky assumes that France, Britain and Italy would agree to the invitation, the terms for the membership still need to be decided through discussions between the NATO members. Then Germany should be convinced to support the proposal. Although Zelensky is optimistic that if the US takes the first step Germany would follow its lead, even if these obstacles could be overcome, the open opposition of Hungary and Slovakia still will remain as the last barrier.

Without a strong deterrence a ceasefire may be the last phase of putting an end to Ukraine. As an analyst of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) points out, while the military strength of Russia will continue to grow, Ukraine’s will plunge after a ceasefire. Upon the suspension of the fighting, pressure will begin to accumulate on the government for demobilisation. As the families of the many discharged personnel immigrated to Europe, they will choose to join them making it almost impossible to redraft quickly enough. The Zelensky government will be forced to go to elections that will temporarily reduce Ukraine’s organisation and the new government understandably will choose reconstruction of their country rather than build up its army. 

In this case, neither bilateral defence agreements nor UN peace forces will be strong enough to prevent Russia exploiting the opportunity. The security assurances given in 1994 in exchange for giving up Soviet nuclear weapons did not prevent annexation of Crimea 20 years later.

So, NATO membership may be the strongest deterrence available but still it may not be enough for a pessimist considering the Russian threat on the Baltic States. They were considered as the Achilles’ heel of NATO as the members may not give the expected solidarity in the face of an aggression and lead to a crack in the alliance. In the case of Ukraine, as the alliance is defensive, the members are not obliged to support if their partner is the initiator of the aggression. Russia may stage conditions to create an excuse for some NATO members to choose not to respond.

In general it is believed that NATO will take the lead of the USA and for that the results of the coming elections are awaited. It is expected that if Kamala Harris is successful, Biden may initiate the discussions for an invitation. On the other hand, even if Trump is reelected he may not oppose the idea since he is totally uninterested with NATO, even the invitation can be used as a compromise for cutting US support to Ukraine. 

Meanwhile Representatives from 36 world leaders from nations including China, India and Iran attended the summit hosted by Russia in Kazan, the capital of Tatarstan. Russia seeks to extend its influence by adding new members to the BRICS organisation. One of the main aims of the organisation is to find new ways to reduce their dependence on the SWIFT system through which international payments are done. An alternative system would reduce the effect of the sanctions imposed by the US. 

Moreover, despite the criticisms, UN secretary general António Guterres also attends the summit to give the message that the invasion of Ukraine is in breach of the UN charter. While the effect of the UN secretary general’s message on the audience will be limited at the best, President Putin will benefit from the attendance by demonstrating the growing influence of BRICS.

One of the highlights of the summit is Turkey’s bid to join BRICS. If that happens Turkey will be the first NATO member who is also part of the organisation. The reason behind its attempt is to extend its economic cooperations to restore its struggling economy rather than finding an alternative to the West. The main function of BRICS for the majority of the attendees and members is economic cooperation rather than building a front against the West. Knowing this fact President Putin had to quote the Indian Prime Minister in his speech with "BRICS is not an anti-Western, it’s just a non-Western group". The alliance makes up 45% of the world's population but just 35% of the global economy.

It is true that BRICS is not a defensive military organisation like NATO and the economic power that it represents is much less than the West, undoubtedly Russia aims to construct a power node which will stand behind itself. To some extent Putin shows success for this aim while the West is treading carefully on a thorny road to find a way against the Russian threat. We will live and see if the West will decide Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity as a liability or an asset for its safety. 

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