A brief update for today, focusing on few ‘neuralgic’ points along the frontline.

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AIR/MISSILE WAR

The GenStab-U is simply not, not, and not learning it… and because the GenStab-U is not learning it, so also all the possible brigade- and battalion commanders of the ZSU are not learning it. The results are meanwhile at least as frustrating to watch as the systemic incompetence of all the zombie idiots in the West.

What am I talking about?

On 3 September, the Russian UAVs tracked down a gathering of ZSU troops outside the village of Berzdryk, in the Sumy Oblast, about 33km from the border to Russia - and blasted them with an Iskander-M:

The number of casualties is still unknown, but the number of ZSU troops visible before the missile hit was about 20…

Meanwhile, the effects of the GenStab-U’s systemic incompetence are reaching such proportions that it’s on social media presences (like DeepState, in this case) to issue warnings for ZSU commanders about the necessity to avoid such mistakes…. (and I would, sometimes, love having the ability to tele-port through internet wires and grab somebody by his collar….).

The GUR (the Ukrainian GRU, i.e. military intel, which is operating its own special forces) seems unable to learn a few things, too. For example: that in modern war one simply can’t run naval operations without sufficient air support (or if, then only by robots like airborne and/or naval drones). And that the PSU can’t provide the necessary air support if it lacks the means to fight the superior Russian interceptors (like MiG-31 and Su-35) and fighter-bombers (like Su-30SMs). The GUR should have learned that lesson already during the fighting for the Snake Island, back in May 2022. But, well: just like in all of the ZSU, in the GUR there is very little practice of post-mission de-briefs and discussion of lessons-learned.

….and so….

On 9 September, the GUR launched an attack at the Krym-2 off-shore platform using 14 speedboats of the (US-made) Willard-class. As usually, the Russians reacted by their fighter jets and helicopters: indeed, they claim to have sunk 8 of speedboats and ‘killed 80 ZSU servicemen’. This might be an exaggeration because it once again turned out that their fighter-bombers have no other means to attack such moving targets by with unguided rockets and internal 30mm cannons. But, we’re unlikely to know any time soon.

The only thing certain is that, during their strafing attacks, contact was lost to one of Su-30SMs of the 43^rd Naval Assault Regiment. The jet crewed by Captains Igor Vladimirovich Stepanishin and D. O. Fomin disappeared: the Russians launched a search and rescue operation for them, but found only a small oil slick and a piece of one wingtip. While some guessed that the Su-30SM was shot down by Ukrainian F-16s, the GUR eventually claimed it as shot down by one of its MANPADs. The same instance said nothing about its own losses…

Now, no doubt, many Ukrainians - and even more of their supporters in the West - are going to celebrate this ‘success’. But, fact remains: regardless how much suppressed is the Russian Black Sea Fleet, operations of this kind by Ukrainian special forces in the Black Sea are de-facto suicidal: there’s no point in sending carefully trained special forces operators into areas controlled by the Russian air power.

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KURSK

What happened there the last few days, is (sadly) a confirmation of something I’ve suspected already about two weeks ago: the ZSU and PSU haven’t found enough means to destroy the Russian pontoon bridges over the Seym, and thus isolate the Russians in the Glushkovo area. On the contrary, regardless of heavy losses in engineering equipment and troops, the VSRF and the VDV have continued pumping reinforcements into the area south of the Seym River. Moreover, the Russians have retained a bridgehead about 5km south-west of Korenevo: AFAIK, the PMP-bridge there was never hit by Ukrainians. And when the Russians have a bridgehead, one can always be 1000% sure they’re going to exploit it at the first opportunity.

Following dozens of air strikes on suspected ZSU positions flown by the VKS between 5 and 8 September, on 9 September, 155^th Naval Infantry Brigade attacked from the Elizavetovka area in eastern direction. The 103^rd TD Brigade seem to have repelled this prong, but was then hit by an assault of the 51^st VDV Regiment from the bridgehead south-west of Korenevo in direction of Snegost: into its northern flank and at the seam between the 103^rd and the 22^nd Mech. The aim of the VDV was not only to reach Snegost but to push all the way down to the border and thus sack the 103^rd.

Now, how exactly have the Ukrainians reacted is unclear, but few things are meanwhile sure: the 103^rd was hit heavily by air strikes. Especially its FPV/UAV-operating elements. When the Russians reached Obukhivka, it was forced to withdraw from Komarovka in direction of Liubimovka. It might have retained the southern sector of its former frontline.

On the northern side of the Ukrainian bulge, the 810^th Naval Infantry has managed to push the 22^nd Mech back to Olgovka, and to reach several groups of Russian troops encircled in the Sheptukhovka area. As of the last evening, the Ukrainians stopped this assault somewhere north of Kremyanoe and south of Kalinov.

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BATTLE OF DONBASS

Kupyansk-Svatove… the Russians continue trying to punch through from Pishchane in direction of Kolisnykivka and the Oskil River.

Bakhmut… the Russians continue their attempts to cross the Siversky Donets-Donbas Canal – so far still without success. The true ‘news’ from this area, however, is that the Russians have crossed the Canal further south, in the Kurdiumivka area, and are pushing from there in direction of Predtchyne: i.e. approaching Chasiv Yar from the south now.
Behind the frontline, the VKS is plastering Kramatorsk with UMPK glide-bombs - because the PSU still hasn’t got enough SAMs to target these, nor any SAMs capable of countering Russian fighter-bombers over the necessary distance (120+ km).

Toretsk… the Russians continue assaulting into Toretsk from Pivnichne and Zalizne. They’re also counterattacking Ukrainians in Niu York.

Pokrovsk… The VKS and the VSRF are heavily pounding Pokrovsk,, Mykolaivka, and Moskovske. On the ground, the Russians have secured the eastern side of Hrodivka, but their assaults from Novohrodivka on Lysivka and Marynivka were all repelled. The Russian push on HIrnyk was stopped and now the Group Tsentr is trying to widen that prong through assaulting Ukrainsk. To my surprise, the 59^th Motorised Brigade is still holding out in the Nevelske pocket, east of the Vovcha River. Probably because the Russian 96^th Motor-Rifle Brigade continues excelling in the Olympic discipline of ‘losing lots of troops over 1000 metres for men’.

Vuhledar…this remains another sector that’s hard to watch: the Russians have not only secured Vodyane and the 1^st and 3^rd coal mines there, but continued pushing into the fields north of Vuhledar and in direction of Bohoyavlenka. All assaults are supported by heavy air strikes and lots of FPVs.

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