ENG
Around 05.10hrs of this morning, Russia launched one or more of intercontinental ballistic missile/s (ICBMs) from Kapustin Yar, in the Astrakhan Oblast to strike an industrial facility in the city of Dnipro.
Presently, it is unclear if the Russians deployed one of RS-26 Rubezh (ASCC/NATO-reporting name ‘SS-X-31’) or one of RS-24 Yars missiles (ASCC/NATO-reporting name ‘SS-27 Mod 2’), and one, two or three such missiles. Each is a solid-fuelled missile that can deliver up to four warheads over a range of (at least) 5,800km (RS-26) or up to 12,000km (RS-24): Rubezh is the shortened version of the RS-24 Yars. So far, there were doubts if they can deploy conventional warheads, and reports have it that the development of the RS-26 was stopped on behalf of developing hypersonic weapons, but I think this question has now been answered.
Point about both of them is that they are exceeding the intercept capabilities of such surface-to-air missile systems (SAMs) in service with the Ukrainian Air Force and Air Defence Force (PSU), like PAC-2/3 Patriot, IRIS-T, SAMP-T, and/or S-300 (indeed, to defend itself from attacks of this kind, Ukraine would need something like US-made Standard SM-6 or THAAD, which Washington is extremely unlikely to deliver).
This attack came ‘in retaliation’ for – during the night from 19 to 20 November – the PSU launching a total of 12 Storm Shadow missiles to strike the main headquarters of the VSRF Group Sever known as ‘Maryno’, in Gubkin (Sovetskaya Street 25A), Belgorod Oblast. The facility in question was a sanatorium positioned within the Orlyonok camp, a recreational facility – which is why some are expressing their doubts about the Ukrainians actually hitting a military target. The HUR says it was the HQ of the Group Sever, though, and it should be kept in mind the VSRF is regularly positioning such facilities within ‘recreational centres’, hotels and similar complexes, and that both in Russia and inside Ukraine (mind the HQ 6th CAA Nezhegol recreational facility outside Shebekino, hit back on 9 June, just for example). The Russians have detected this strike early, but seem to have expected an attack on the Yeysk area. Pudding’s PRBS-industrialists then reported that ‘only the wreckage’ hit the ‘Maryno’. However, Ukraine-released UAV-video is showing a series of hits on the same compound.
Notably, the Russian preparations for this strike must have been tracked by NATO, because yesterday the USA, Germany, France, Spain etc. (for example) have ordered the closing of their embassies in Kyiv (resulting in ‘half of the city’ being paralised by traffic caused by their evacuations) – all because of a ‘possible nuclear attack’ (there are still-valid treaties between the USA and the Russian Federation, according to which each side has to notify the other about a launch of an ICBM at least 24 hours in advance).
That said, both the PR China and India have – repeatedly – warned Putin against deployment of nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
How precise was the Russian attack on Dnipro strike? That’s presently impossible to asses independently. Part of the reason is that simultaneously with the RS-26 or RS-24, the Russians attacked with 6 Kh-101 cruise missiles (all six were shot down), and 1 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile.
Official Kyiv reported damage on ‘an industrial facility’ and ‘two fires’.
Unofficial Russian sources claim they have targeted the Yuzhmash Factory (AFAIK, as of 10.00hrs local time, there was no related statement either by Pudding or his Keystone Cops in Moscow).
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I guess that I’m going to edit/update this feature as additional info comes in, during the day.
For example:
The text is published with the permission of the author. First published here.
