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According to preliminary estimates, the Social Democrats (SPD) are outrunning the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the state elections in the eastern German region of Brandenburg - 30.9% to 29.2%, respectively. The current prime minister and main candidate of the Social Democratic Party, Dietmar Woidke, has already declared victory, calling it hard work to stop extremists from gaining power. Even before the election, the leader of Scholz's party said he would end his 11-year rule of Brandenburg if the pro-Russian AfD wins. The secret of Woidke's success is called the ‘personality effect’ - the distancing of the Social Democrat from his fellow party member and current chancellor Olaf Scholz. At the same time, Scholz himself lives in Potsdam, the capital of Brandenburg, and has the right to vote along with 2.5 million other residents of the region

The AfD, the silver medallist in the race, is under close scrutiny by the local constitutional protection office, which suspects the alternativeists of right-wing extremism. And the main AfD candidate, Hans-Christoph Berndt, has already been labelled a ‘definite right-wing extremist’ by the local Interior Ministry. Nevertheless, the right-wing radicals are becoming a blocking minority, as they will hold every third seat in the Landstag. This gives them the right to block important decisions, such as the election of constitutional judges.  

Hans-Christoph Berndt has already declared his success, boasting that the Alternative is the most popular party in the state among young people, saying that the future is ours. If only Brandenburgers under the age of 30 were to participate in the elections, the AfD would win the election with a landslide.

Another pro-Russian party, the Sarah Wagenknecht Union (BSW), took the third seat in the state parliament with 13.5 per cent, sensationally leaving behind former Chancellor Angela Merkel's party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), with 12.1 per cent. The left-wing populist Sarah Wagenknecht called the election crucial, as her party also came third in the recent elections in the other two former GDR states of Thuringia and Saxony, with 15% each. Moreover, in Thuringia, the formation of a coalition government without the Wagenknecht Union is simply mathematically impossible. Now, in Brandenburg, the Social Democrats will most likely not be able to form a government without the Union. Observers estimate that more than 60% of Sarah's political messages during the election campaign were devoted to friendship with Russia and calls to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine.

For the Union 90/Greens party, which is ruling in the federal government coalition, the exit polls are extremely disappointing. With 4.1 per cent, the Greens are unable to overcome the 5 per cent threshold to enter the Brandenburg state parliament. This is the second failure for the Green Party and its leader, Vice Chancellor and Minister of Economy Robert Habeck, after his failure in the September elections in Thuringia. For the Greens' coalition partners, the Free Democrats (FDP), led by Finance Minister Christian Lindner, the local elections were the third failure in September. Just as in Thuringia and Saxony earlier in the month, the FDP did not enter the Brandenburg parliament at all. The leader of the Free Democrats in Bavaria, Martin Hagen, even called on his party colleagues in Berlin to leave the ‘traffic light’ coalition after another fiasco in East Germany. In his opinion, the results of the last three elections show that free democrats can no longer represent the interests of the people in the government.

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The last local elections before the main elections to the Bundestag next year will be held in Hamburg. One of Germany's largest cities is traditionally centre-left, and the far-right barely makes it into the city's parliament. The pro-Russian radical parties - both the right-wing Alternative for Germany and the left-wing Sarah Wagenknecht Union - make no secret of the fact that their main electorate is located in the eastern states. Therefore, the radicals' success in the local elections in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg was indicative of the upcoming parliamentary elections in 2025. In a year's time, the formation of a new government and the election of a new federal chancellor will depend on the party balance in the next Bundestag.

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