The offensive operation that Ukraine initiated towards Russian territory left its first week behind. According to Ukraine's top commander Oleksandr Syrskyi, they have occupied 1,000 sq km of territory bordering the Kursk region. Kyiv is silent about the ultimate aims of the operation except that they are giving Russia a taste of their own medicine. 

For the outside observers the assessment of the operation is difficult because they have to rely on the subjective information that can be gathered through Russian sources. It can be as simple as an exposure therapy for the Western allies who were timid to supply military equipment 869 days ago. During the war, thanks to the Ukrainian strategy to cross West’s self established red lines incrementally, they gained courage to support Ukraine with increasingly more sophisticated military equipment, but they were still limiting their use. 

For the last two and half years, many smart political and military experts warned about the dangers of attacking Russia, drawing attention to the Russian Nuclear Doctrine that allows the use of nuclear weapons in situations critical for national security. Today the Ukrainian army is advancing into Russian territory using Western material. 

The occupied territory can be considered as a thorn in comparison to the size of the Russian Federation but more than 180 000 civilians had already left the region and President Putin’s special operation is no longer restricted to the Ukraine territory. 

Despite the Biden administration expressing their concern over an escalation with the Kursk incursion, a Republican senator described it "brilliant" and "bold" and asked for the delivery of more military equipment in a recent bipartisan visit to Ukraine. German chancellor Sholtz has not commented yet but lower level officials supported Ukraine’s right to defend themselves.

According to Putin, and to some Western experts, Ukraine aims to gain leverage on peace talks. If that is true Ukraine needs to hold their positions, at least the most defensible frontline, till the end of the war. For this Ukraine needs to build defensive structures and secure logistical communication. While awaiting F-16 fighter jets to arrive, the Russian air force remains much superior. So, the incursion forces that are composed of precious elite forces would be exposed for a high-risk dubious objective, especially considering insufficient manpower of Ukraine. Moreover, it is certain that Russia will bring all the weight that they can muster to repel Ukraine out of the region.   

Another possibility could be that it is the beginning of a new form of guerilla warfare. The tactic would involve surprising the enemy with the unexpected attack, occupying the region for a limited time and after sufficiently mauling, retreating back and repeating it in another region. However that would sound fantastic, moving thousands of troops from one side to another is not as easy as doing it in small companies. However it can be that Ukraine will teach the world how it can be achieved as they taught the importance of drone warfare.

According to the experts, Russia will need to protect their borders more seriously, thinning their forces on the occupied regions which may bring their already slowly progressing counter offensive in Donbass to a halt and hopefully can weaken their frontline for another Ukrainian counter offensive towards key targets to weaken their hold in Crimea. However it should not be forgotten that the same is true for the Ukrainian army, enforcing the Russian border may totally paralyse their ability to take action that will end up in a stalemate.

Meanwhile, Russia seeks to compensate for the ineptitude of its army, again with the same stale but cruel and indecent moves. On Sunday, fire broke out  at a cooling tower of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (NPP) in southern Ukraine. It is quickly confirmed that there was no spike in radiation levels or no impact on nuclear safety was detected. Both sides have blamed each other for the incident. Considering that the NPP has sufficient auxiliary generators for the cooling system and the reactors were solidly built to resist direct impact it may have been a reminder to the world what is at risk. 

Yet this half hearted nuclear retaliation preview together with Putin’s promise that Ukraine will ‘receive a worthy response’ did not create a panic in the West, at least overtly, to pressure Ukraine to stop its operation. It is a sign that finally they do not take Putin’s threats as seriously anymore. 

Thanks to these flamboyant offensive Ukraine managed to attract the attention of the West. Unfortunately for many this war devolves to a gladiatorial match in the arena. For sure Ukraine proves to have more cards in its sleeve to demonstrate that the war is not yet a stalemate but the operation needs to end sooner or later either with withdrawal or stopping the progress further into Russia and taking a defensive position. 

At the moment, Ukraine seems to win several rewards like boosting their morale and regaining initiative. Moreover, capturing prisoners of war including several of Kadyrov's soldiers will give enough leverage for a large prisoner exchange. Humiliation of Putin should also push the Russian elite to think if he is the best man who will bring an end to the war which will eventually bring the question if this war is worth continuing.