Hello everybody!

While waiting for ‘news to settle down’ and get cross-confirmed, too, have made an ‘operational pause’, the last few days. Didn’t help much, though: to say I’m growing frustrated, furious - and particularly sarcastic - would be an understatement. Thus, my recommendation: whoever has problems with sarcasm, do both of us a favour and stop reading right here.

Thanks a lot.

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STRATEGIC

After Reuters – which is ‘reporting’ about this for years already – meanwhile also Bloomberg is full of news about Iranian-made tactical ballistic missiles being sold to Russia for operations against Ukraine. So much so, reportedly, even some of (anonymous, like always) ‘Ukrainian officials’ should be extremely upset about such reports. And they are threatening Iran with retaliations. Which reminds me that already since February, I owe you the rest of that story: i.e. an explanation why do I think that’s not going to happen any time soon. Must catch with that in the coming week….

For the time being, must keep you happy with other reasons for my…. ‘happiness’, and ‘delight’… Indeed: there’s a big party on my yacht in Monte Carlo, going on for a week already.

Reason?

The Trio Fantasticus is so concerned about the safety and well-being of the Russian Su-34s and their air bases inside Russia that it continues banning Ukraine from deploying ATACMS ballistic missiles against these. Meanwhile, even if it would let the Ukrainians use such US-made tactical ballistic missiles against targets inside Russia, the Trio Fantasticus has bought enough time for the VKS to withdraw all of its Su-34-units (plus all the VKS’ Su-24-units) outside ATACMS-range.

Why?

OK, I’m certified as having no clue about diplomacy, but let me explain you: because for the zombie idiots of the Trio Fantasticus, the safety of the Russian bombers (that are regularly massacring Ukrainian civilians) is a more pressing issue (than the safety of Ukrainian civilians). Is also the reason why they – and all of the other zombie idiots in the West – continue dragging feet with deliveries of surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine, and that at every opportunity…

Above all of that, for the zombie idiots in question, everything is better – especially prolonging this war – than doing what’s necessary to end it. Because endless war are the best for profit. That’s nothing personal. Just business…

Now you know better.

But hey: Van der Leyen has granted €40 million for repairs of the Ukrainian power-supply infrastructure. Arguably, this is such a massive sacrifice, all of the EU is now going to have nothing to eat, and will be freezing, this winter, but hey… I simply love our President of the EU Commission: right now, no other politician excelling more in double standards and hypocrisy is coming to my mind.

Lets change the topic before I get really mad… because there’s also no reason to be mad: there was another NATO-Ukraine meeting in Rammstein, and now everything’s fine. After all, Madrid is sending another MIM-23 SAM-site to Ukraine, Italy is sending another SAMP-T SAM-site, the USA are going to donate another 200 M113s, and Germany no less than 12 PzH2000s… and thus, the issue of Ukrainian air defences is going to be solved, once and for all… especially with help of M113s and Panzerhaubitze 2000s…. and whenever anything of this reaches Ukraine…. sometimes in 2025 or so…

Which is reminding me that this week the People in Need of fresh Air (the Pentagon) have announced they’re going to find a solution for replacing Ukrainian S-300 SAMs, and R-27 air-to-air missiles. Took them only between 2,5 and 10,5 years to figure out there’s a need for such replacements.

But, that was not the reason. The actual reason for this descision is that even they have meanwhile figured out the Ukrainian Luch design bureau has suitable projects on its drawing boards since years, researched and developed, and now only needs money to press them into production – probably by Artyom Works. Therefore, both the Pentagon and NATO have concluded the obvious: there is an urgent need to prevent Ukrainian defence sector from growing.

Why and what do I mean?

Imagine the mess if the Ukrainians develop their own replacements for S-300s and their own long-range air-to-air missiles?!? And ballistic missiles, too…? The Trio Fantasticus – and whatever might follow starting with January 2025 – would have nothing left with which to blackmail Kyiv any more. Worse yet: Kyiv could come to the idea to press its own designs into series production, solve its problems with the lack of air defence missiles, the lack of long-range air-to-air missiles, the lack of ballistic missiles… and then, and as first, target Kremlin… where one would have expect it to do that as first, because that’s making so much sense at the time Ukraine is fighting a war for its naked survival.

…and that’s not to talk about an even bigger and far more urgent concern: whenever this war might be over, the Ukrainian defence sector would be a serious competition to the US defence sector.

This is something the USA cannot tolerate. After all, the Pentagon now has nearly 80 years of tradition of ruining the European defence sector. Therefore, such Ukrainian fantasies must be prevented. Regardless the cost. And, therefore, the glorious US defence sector is going to assume responsibility for such issues. Considering the fact that’s certain to include the likes of Boeing and Musk, we can expect the first flight testing of the US-made ‘Replacement S-300’ to take place already in 2035. Followed by the ‘US-made Replacement R-27’, in around 2040….by when they’re also going to find out the result is actually obsolete – though only amid at least 27 scandals regarding over-pricing, delays, corruption, incompetence, and the use of parts made in the PR China…

….while the ‘classic/regular’ Ukrainian defence sector is working so much better. For example, the last week, somebody asked something like why don’t the Ukrainians simply reverse-engineer the Russian UMPK glide bombs.

I’ve answered that there would be no point in just reverse engineering these, because the tactical situation resulting in attempts to deploy them the way the Russians must deploy their UMPKs (because these are crude and non-powered designs), would result in heavy losses for the PSU.

Well… meanwhile, I’ve been corrected. Mere 10,5 years since the Russian invasion of the Crimea and Donbas, just 2,5 years since the all-out Russian invasion, and only about a week since the dismissal of General ‘our holly US-American allies’ Oleschuk, the Ministry of Defence in Kyiv and the PSU seem to be on the way to catch with that part of the Ukrainian public clever enough to figure out the Trio Fantasticus’ concerns for the safety of the Russian bombers, and the general incompetence of the Western zombie idiots. Ended developing the first (genuinely) Ukrainian-designed precision guided bomb/missile. AFAIK, the weapon in question is using the warhead of the (Soviet-designed) FAB-250M-54 bomb: this has received an aerodynamic cover at the front, a set of flip-out wings at the top, and – and that’s something really different – what looks like a guidance- and power section at the rear, apparently including a rocket motor or even a small jet engine. Nobody would say anything about the latter, but the RUMINT has it that the range should be around 200km.

Another piece of RUMINT is that, late on Friday, or early on Saturday, either one of such weapons – or ‘just another’ of Ukrainian attack UAVs – blew up a Russian ammunition dump in Soldatskoye, in the Voronezh Oblast (reportedly: this contained a stock of North-Korean-made NK-23s, too). Of course, everybody is free to consider this another of spontaneous smoking accidents, so frequent in the Russian Federation of our days, too: after all, especially the Russians know that the Ukrainians could never do anything of this kind on their own…

….just imagine all the horrors the grandiose strategists in the White House must be going through, these days. I bet Sullivan has a problem with finding sleep at night…

That said, one might wonder how comes things of this kind take so long to develop… in Ukraine?

No idea. Can only offer another example. Since subjected to the control of the Zelensky Administration, the Ministry of Defence in Kyiv did it utmost not to finance the research and development of the Bohdana self-propelled howitzer.

Why?

It’s pure logic! So much so, can’t say!

Because the factory manufacturing Bohdanas is owned by Petro Poroshenko – and it so happens, he’s a businessman/oligarch, and a former president of Ukraine, and thus Zelensky’s political opponent. And so, at the time of the Russian all-out invasion and Putin’s war of extermination of Ukraine, the first prototype of Bohdana was laying disassembled, forgotten in some hall in Kramatorsk. Wasn’t it for somebody (well down the chain of command) to evacuate all of its pieces and then order their re-assembly, at own discretion – it would not have been used even during the operations to recover the Snake Island, back in summer 2022, not to talk about entering series production… (yes, Bohdana is meanwhile in series production, but only since Zelensky has found a way to exploit this fact for own PR-purposes).

I love this. There’s nothing like politicians and their own priorities at the time the country (which they’re supposed to administer ‘in interest of the people’) is facing a war of extermination…

….no idea why is it exactly at this point in time, a random thought came to my mind without any particular reason: is it me or is the conclusion on hand, that East European countries that are former members of the Warsaw Pact or even former parts of the USSR, and that have subsequently introduced constitutional republics as political system, instead of the scam ‘democracy through electing presidents that then rule as they like’ - are politically stable and doing better?

Why do I ask?

Oh, sorry… no particular reason. Was, really, just a random thought… in the case of doubt: I’m asking for a friend…

***

AIR/MISSILE WAR

Through this week everybody involved was excelling. Ukrainian top commanders with never learning the lesson about avoiding to bunch too many of their people into one place within range of the Russian ballistic missiles; and with continuing to declare BM-30 artillery rockets for ‘S-300 SAMs’; and the Russians with not only striking big concentrations of Ukrainian troops behind the frontline, but also ever additional Ukrainian civilians.  

And so…

3 September: two Russian ballistic missiles have hit the Military Institute of Communication and the 179th Joint Training Centre in Poltava. Now, what’s still unclear is the number of casualties: AFAIK, as of this morning, the official figure was at 58 killed and 328 wounded; however, back on 3 September, talk was already about 80 delivered to the local morgue… One way or the other, it’s infuriating to hear the ZSU’s generals are still so super-clever as to bunch this many troops in one spot within easy reach of the Russian missiles. Additionally, the PSU claimed to have shot down all 27 Shaheds detected, while two others disappeared over Russia and the occupied Donetsk.

4 September: 2 Kh-22, 11 Kh-101s, 3 Iskander-Ks, 29 Shaheds; 7 Kh-10s and 22 Shaheds claimed as shot down; six additional Shaheds claimed as crashed due to electronic warfare. Sumy was heavily hit (8 wounded), and a hotel in Kryvyi Rih demolished by another Russian missile (about a dozen of injured, but no fatalities).

5 September: 78 Shaheds, 1 Iskander-M; 60 Shaheds claimed as shot down.

6 September: at first, 27 Shaheds were reported as detected, and all 27 claimed as shot down; then the number of Shaheds claimed as shot down grew to 60, and the PSU added that 15 (‘others’?) crashed due to electronic countermeasures. Artoym Works in Kyiv were between targets of this strike. Five Shaheds and one cruise missile were claimed as shot down over Dnipro, and something is known to have been hit in Kryvyi Rih again. Additionally, the VKS is known to have heavily targeted the Sumy area with UMPKs.

7 September: 57 Shaheds: 58 claimed as shot down; the VKS has primarily targeted Pokrovsk with UMPKs.

8 September: 23 Shaheds and 1 Kh-59/69, of which 15 Shaheds and 1 Kh-59/69 were claimed as shot down. As far as is known, energy-related facilities were hit in six oblasts of Ukraine.

….having discussed the brilliance of Western and Ukrainian politics and air warfare, now for the next topic - where I cannot but observe: don’t worry, there’s even more brilliance to follow in this regards, too!

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GROUND WAR

Following completely unnecessary losses in troops (important) and terrain (less important) of the last two months, the last week – literally ‘5 before 12’, and certainly on order from another ‘greatest strategist of all the time’ – the GenStab-U has, finally, sent reinforcements to Donbas. Why was this impossible to do for months before is über-super-top-secret. Really, can only guess it must be within realms of, ‘could tell you, but would have to kill you’. But: don’t worry, it’s another of affairs in Ukraine that’s going to be investigated.

…which means that there there is going to be no repeat of old mistakes. This is certain because some of ZSU’s generals do happen do get fired, time and again. It’s just so that, exactly like in the case of politicians and officials accused of corruption, nothing happens afterwards. Nobody is investigated for anything. Instead, the situation is left in limbo until the public cools down - and then forgotten… This is why, when one asks why are the reinforcements for the Pokrovsk sector ‘happening’ only now, one gets to hear the same ‘after the war’ like always since 24 February 2022.

Perhaps it’s just so that the list of reasons to investigate major failures by glorious Ukrainian politicians is meanwhile much too long, and, as everybody knows: investigating top ZSU generals is a blasphemy.

(Besides, neither are ever making any kind of mistakes, so why bother…?)

Ah well…. Point is: whether by accident or design, yes, the reinforcements… erm… ‘have happened’.

And how have they happened! Precisely in a fashion that could have been expected by nobodies like me, not to talk about the Russians: in front of the VSRF advance. Not at its flanks or somewhere else the GenStab-U wouldn’t ever expect them to…. happen.

…unsurprisingly, my admiration for genius politicians and generals just keeps on growing, like it’s constantly growing ever since around the early 1990s. Read: all the time, every minute, hour, day, week, and month…

***

KURSK…

This Ukrainian operation is pointless. Or a waste of time and resources. Incompetently planned and executed… Or super-turbo enterprise that caught the Russians with their underwear down, but: unsuccessful in drawing at least 30,000+, perhaps up to 60,000 Russian troops away from the battlefields in Ukraine. Because, you know, had it not been launched, these 30,000-60,000 Russian troops would either remain inside Russia and continue threatening NATO, and the Suwalki Corridor, or some other nonsense in same style…or not be withdrawn from Ukraine…

That’s what one can read in assessments of all the possible Experten. Especially those cashing US$/€ 100,000+ a year. And including those that, mere 11 years ago, were predicting a period of pluralism and democracy, peace and prosperity for the entire Black Sea area… and selling such truths and knowledge all over the EU for prices starting with €50,000….(meh, that price was still lower than for multiple expertises on extremist Islam in the EU, containing no links between it and governments of Qatar or Pakistan, and the same standing in absolutely no relations to what Israel is doing every single day… just for example…)

Never mind. What’s important and what does matter is that the ‘video, or it didn’t happen’-crowd in the social media stoically continues to ignore the Russians assaults on the ZSU positions along the railway berm east of Alexandrovka – probably because, well, everybody knows this offensive is a failure…

Meanwhile, on the other side of the stadium, this week Pudding’s PRBS-industrialists were busy crying about the fate of metropolises like Pogrebki, Orlovka, Naydenov, Maryevka, Nechaev… Arguably, all are under ZSU control for more than 10 days, meanwhile, but – also because in the Russian social media this Ukrainian offensive is best known for being spoiled already back on 7 August 2024 – the VSRF proved unable to punch through to the troops encircled there, and thus now had to admit it: all have been captured.

Rather surprisingly, they’re not complaining about the loss of Pushkarnoe; about the destruction of two additional pontoon bridges on the Seym; or all the failures of multiple Russian counterattacks east of Korenevo…. Must be so that these do not matter…  what does matter is, so the Pudding’s PRBs-industralists, the relentless flow of ever additional Ukrainian reinforcements equipped with huge volumes of latest NATO-armament and led by British, Polish, French and other international mercenaries into Russia…

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NORTHERN KHARKIV

The ZSU has finally found a way to organise and conduct an effective counterattack in this area and kicked the Russians away from Lyptsi. The troops were busy collecting the loot for two days afterwards. This included at least one TOS-1 and this T-72 (towed away by a captured TOS-1):

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BATTLE OF DONBAS

Kupyansk-Svatove… The 77^th Airborne has managed to stop the Russian advance via Pischane in direction of the Oskil River, but the Russians (15^th Motor-Rifle Regiment & 1^st Tank Regiment?) then turned south and advanced into the rear of the 77^th’s positions in the Berstove area… Thus, bitter fighting is going on in the local fields and hedgerows, and the situation is anything else than ‘stabilised’… But, no reason to worry: gauging by events elsewhere, the GenStab-U is going to send reinforcements.

….sometimes in January 2025…

***

Toretsk…  while the 32^nd Mech, 53^rd Mech, 95^th Airborne, and 150^th Mech have held out most of the Russian assaults from Shumy and Zalizne, early this week, a counterattack by the 53^rd recovered most of northern Niu York. The Russians, promptly, counterattacked into the flanks, suffered heavy losses and where thrown back, and then, two days ago, the II/53^rd then recovered the centre and the southern side of NIu York.

….quite certainly because it was entirely impossible to reinforce the troops on time and prevent the loss of Niu York, in the first place…

***

Pokrovsk-Avdiivka… The Russians continued attacking west, but foremost south, this week. Have entered Novotoretske, but can’t bring it under control. Have entered Hrodivka, but can’t bring it under control….although, gauging by videos like the one from which the following still was taken, whoever has sent them there, has not much clue about where are the Russians, either…

…then the Russians have entered Krasny Yar and Mykolaivka, but can’t bring either under control. Hey, but at least they’ve been left to secure all of Novohrodivka and the Ukrainian-constructed defence system there….

The Russian attacks on Selydove were all smashed. At least while entering Mykhailivka (something like ‘eastern suburb of Selydove’). That far, everything was ‘fine’ this week – even more so because it so happened the GenStab-U brought in the 12^th NG Azov and the 15^th NG Kara-Dag Brigades (that unit introduced itself to the 55th or the 137th Brigades of the Russian Group Tsentr in a particularly kind fashion), plus the 93^rd Mechanised to this area….

What was less fine (and, indeed, remains not the least fine as this is written), is the situation on the southern side of the Russian bulge. There, the GenStab-U did not deploy any reinforcements, so that the Russians – completely unexpectedly, you know - entered Ukrainsk, and Halytsynivka, plus reached the northern side of Hirnyk. So that now they have less than 5,000 metres left to Kurakhivka and Vovchenka, where they will be able to cut off four ZSU brigades (59^th, 68^th, 78^th, 117^th) still holding out east of the Vovcha River.

Of course, the troops in question are already withdrawing from the ‘Nevelske Pocket’ (and thus from positions that held so fine for years), and the actual frontline is already somewhere between Halytsynivka and Krasnohorivka, but ZSU is so unfair and not releasing any kind of related videos…

The Russians promptly did something about that with videos. While trying to support the push on Kurakhivka by an assault from the East (from the Krasnohorivka area), the 96^th Motor-Rifle Brigade introduced us to a new Olympic discipline: simultaneous detonations of multiple vehicles. Current record holder is the assault group of that brigade led by Captain Alexander Bezmozhny, with ‘3 at once’:

….Bezmozhni’s competition is fierce, though, and new records are certainly to follow…

Talking about mindless people, two ‘BTWs’…

No. 1: what’s interesting is the 93^rd’s experiences in regards of clearing the skies. Literally. Its Signum Battalion destroyed some 49 Russian UAVs, including 36 Zalas, 7 SuperCams, 5 Orlans, and 1 Lancet (here all the related geo-locations). Now, for somebody else but the GenStab-U, this would be a ‘valuable lesson learned’. See: you first clear the Russian UAVs, then smash them on the ground. But, in Ukraine…

No. 2: another photo of a knocked out M1 Abrams main battle tank of the 47^th Mechanised Brigade, ZSU, has surfaced in the social media:

….which stunned a number of well-informed US-Americans: indeed, a few have declared it a blasphemy. For multiple, well-substantiated reasons.

The first is that because no US-operated M1 was ever destroyed in combat, you know. Only M1s operated by such incompetents like Iraqis, Saudis, or Ukrainians.

The actual list for M1s destroyed – in Iraq of 2003-2006 alone (i.e. not including 1991) – is something like 13, plus 64 ‘wrecked but repairable in factory’. But, that doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter the US-Americans never fought the Russians either (except as volunteers in Ukraine, for example). Another blasphemy is the Ukrainians attaching so many ERA bricks (ERA = explosive reactive armour) around their M1s: because the same US-Americans know the armour is able to cope with all sorts of threats. Who cares if the armour in quistion was designed at a time nobody could even dream about the threat of the same tank getting hit by several FPVs equipped with shaped-charge warheads from above…

***

The Vuhledar corner… except for zombie idiots, this remains my favourite topic – because almost everybody else is ignoring it. So much so, it’s hard to explain. Cannot but beg you: please, stop reading at least at this point…

You know, it began about 10+ days ago, when first rumours about the 72^nd Mechanised being rotated out of the area have reached me. Indeed, the story went as far as that the troops of the 72^nd were concerned they’re withdrawing out of Vuhledar, but about to be sent to Pokrovsk… Now, no idea if the 72^nd was really re-deployed to the Pokrovsk sector (I do hope: NOT). But, well, if something of that kind has reached me… it’s certain not to have reached Moscow and the Russian GenStab, right?

With other words: after something like two years (ever since rushing the 72^nd Mechanised, which was battered already during the Battle for Moshschun, north-west of Kyiv, back in March 2022 to Vuhledar), the GenStab-U has, for once (and really: surprisingly) decided not to ignore this sector.

Instead, and once again, it demonstrated brilliance in regards of operational security. Just like it demonstrated brilliance in regards of learning its lessons. As obvious from the fact that right at the time the 72^nd was in the process of being withdrawn and replaced by the 58^th Motorised, and for the first time ever, ever, the Russians assaulted the area.

All of a sudden. Nothing of this kind happened ever before… especially not since Soledar in early January 2023…

….that’s the advantage of the GenStab-U still not taking care to write a new doctrine of the ZSU – one based on combat experiences of the last 2,5-10,5 years: that way, the mass of its brigade- and battalion commanders are still not good enough at security, nor do they anticipate Russian assaults at the time they’re in the process of rotating their troops.

But hey: the Ukrainians were lucky. The Russians merely shelled the ruins of Vuhledar into oblivion. Didn’t attack there. Instead, they merely captured the ZSU positions in Prechystivka, completely demolished in a months-long, systemic campaign of air- and UAV-strikes.

….and they have entered Vodiane and reached the entry to one of mines there. Plus pushed along the road from there in direction of the eastern side of Vuhledar. Which is why people far cleverer and better informed about this war, and warfare in general, than I am, concluded that the Russians didn’t advance in this area at all. Indeed, that they are capable of simultaneously advancing only on one sector of the front in Ukraine…

Meh: gauging that way, this was actually a Russian withdrawal…?

….all of which is the same like concluding that somebody hit and killed by 5 bullets was lucky, because only 1 was deadly…

***

On the lighter side…

Please excuse the lack of replies to your possible commentary. For the rest of this afternoon, I’m busy playing with my aircraft…

The content is published with the permission of the author. First published here.