Fog on the side of the Armed Forces

Review by military expert Tom Cooper, focusing on three to four sectors of the battlefield. What is happening around Avdiivka, in Zaporizhzhya region and on the left bank of the Dnieper, Kherson region

Tom Cooper

Tom Cooper

Опубліковано

26.10.23

Fog on the side of the Armed Forces

According to reports received on the morning of October 23, a series of explosions occurred at the entrance to the Sevastopol port (which is well guarded).

It is confirmed that the American-made MIM-23 HAWK aircraft have finally entered service with the PSU (ed. Air Force of Ukraine). It is claimed that on the night of October 22-23, it was they who shot down two or three of about 13 Shaheed UAVs and one X-59.

Deliveries of the MIM-23 took “only” about a year. The reason: most missiles and launchers (manufactured 40 or more years ago) were in poor condition and needed significant restoration and repair. In addition, Spain, Taiwan and other providers have used very different versions. On the positive side: there should be plenty of both missiles and M197 launchers in warehouses, so having them is likely to make the task much easier for the PSU over the next winter.

Bakhmut. South.

To the east of the railway shaft in the Andriivka area, the Ukrainians advanced (about 1000 m) in the direction of Odradivka. Further south, fierce fighting is reported from the side of Zelenopil: I assume that the 28th Mehbrigade is trying to advance south, to the rear of the Russian line from the eastern side of Kurdyumovka.

Avdiyivka.

With the support of air strikes (mainly IPC/UMPC cluster bombs), the Russians yesterday continued their assault on the “height 230”, as well as further north, in the direction of the railway shaft northeast of Stepovoe. In fact, the entire territory from Krasnogorovka in the north to the top of altitude 230 is a “no man's land” (or “gray zone”, in the slang of modern social networks): under the control of Ukrainian artillery, but not under the control of the infantry of the Armed Forces, and the Russians constantly “transfer” additional troops for almost continuous operation attacks. Meanwhile, Ukrainian artillery has succeeded in forcing the Russians to stop in front of the barricades and then intensively minting the terrain where they stopped, so that the Russians - whether it be equipment or infantry - cannot move. But, unfortunately, this battle is also costly for the Ukrainians; many defensive positions of the Armed Forces have been completely destroyed by many days of Russian airstrikes and artillery fire; and the combination of terrain and Russian superiority in the air prevents the Armed Forces from conducting counterattacks into the enemy's flank, for example, from somewhere in the north.

There are many “good reasons” why Putin and the “Moscow police” decided to launch this major offensive on this particular site.

Robotyne-Verbove-Novoprokopivka. After rotating their units in the area, the Armed Forces seem to be advancing again, this time in the direction of Kopani. Apparently, taking advantage of the morning fog and heavy artillery support, the infantry advanced deep into the long Russian defensive line defending this village from the north and west. There were also new reports of Ukrainian attacks to the east of Novoprokopivka and in the direction of the dominant heights further east.

Fog is the “perfect weather” for Ukrainian tactics of attacking enemy positions: it makes drones and surveillance cameras useless, hides troops from the enemy while they are demining minefields and approaching enemy positions - while not preventing Ukrainian artillery from firing on selected geographic coordinates dinates.

At the same time, the reports of some units that have been in this area of the front for the past four to five months are not very pleasant. For example, the 47th Mehbrigade seems to have suffered such losses in the infantry that it has recently been forced to use as “infantry” units that usually work with ATMs and mortars. In addition, losses in armored vehicles have reached such a level that ammunition from advanced warehouses to the front has to be transferred “manually”. This is said to explain the ongoing work of the Armed Forces to create additional units: they not only serve as a strategic reserve, but have recently been used to replace battered units, allowing them to rest, reorganize and regain combat capability.

Unfortunately, some parts were “out of luck.” For example, the 47th Mehbrigade was withdrawn from the southern part of the Zaporizhzhya region to a “relatively calm” direction north of Avdiyivka: it did not have time to be there, as they were already involved in another big battle. (Yes, the story of this brigade begins to remind me of the history of the 17th Panzer in the first six to seven months of this war).

Dnipro. The Armed Forces seem to have advanced far enough in a southeasterly direction to cut off the road between Cossack Lagers and Podstepny, somewhere between Poima and Peschanivka. It seems that this is done in order to “make room” on the bridgehead for the deployment of heavy equipment. The Russians respond with air strikes and artillery shelling.

The text is published with the permission of the author. First published by link.

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