On Sunday, elections in two states were held in Germany. According to the preliminary results far right the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party came out as the first with 32.8 percent of votes in Thuringia, and as the strong second with 30.6 percent in the neighbouring Saxony. 

The German electoral system is overly complicated, is conducted under various rules determined by the states, the election period is generally four to five years and the dates of elections vary from state to state. Main takeaway of the elections is that it is the first time that the far right has won a state election in Germany since World War II and Chancellor Scholz’s three party centre-left SPD coalition fell to the fifth place in both states.

As if that was enough, the far left populist Reason and Justice (BSW - Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) party, despite being founded eight months ago came third in both states -Thuringia (16%) and Saxony (12%). BSW is an interesting party mixing left-wing economic policies such as  minimum wage and higher pensions with far right rhetoric such as anti-immigration, climate policies, anti-Americanism and pro-Russian leaning. 

BSW is named after its leader Sahra Wagenknecht and formed through a split in the The Left Party which is an indirect descendent of the Marxist–Leninist ruling party of former East Germany. Wagenknecht is an economist and an East-Berliner and beginning from her teens she was on the far side of the left. As expected she supports social spending, high wages, state benefits and state ownership. However on the foreign policy she is against NATO and proposes a new security agreement with Russia to bring the two countries closer. Naturally, on Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine, Wagenknecht opposed sanctioning the Kremlin and sending military aid to Kyiv. Upon wide-scale calls for her expulsion from the Left Party members, she founded BSW.

The leaders of the AfD have expressed that they are ready to take government responsibility so far, no party including BSW showed willingness to be in a coalition with them. The election victory grants AfD the special rights of a “blocking minority”  in Thuringia that enables the party to veto certain decisions such as amendments to the regional state constitution and the appointment of judges. However AfD lost to acquire the same privileges in Saxony with one seat.

The AfD has been classified as a “suspected right-wing extremist organisation” and its regional branches in Saxony and Thuringia have been declared “undoubtedly right-wing extremists” by the German civilian intelligence service. In January this year, one and a half million demonstrators had demanded the banning of the party after a report revealed that AfD leaders, party backers, and some neo-Nazi figures met to discuss a plan for large-scale of “remigration” - expulsions of migrants with residence permits, asylum seekers, and foreign-born German citizens.

Popularity of both BSW and AfD is on the rise in the regions that once were East-Germany (GDR). The reason for this trend was previously explained with lower economic growth, employment, wages, pensions and average income. However, recent surveys show that the difference between the East and the West in these parameters are marginal and most importantly the population of the Eastern states do not feel they are disadvantaged. 

Some Eastern Germany born sociologists and historians explain the difference with Eastern Germans’ desire to express their own distinct identity and understanding of democracy that developed under communist rule. This wish stems from their culture shock that they experienced when they reunited with the West in 1989. According to these thinkers, merging with a highly multicultural society driven by a different economical system without any preparation led to the development of a xenophobic defensive reaction. 

However critics of the GDR theory point out that as the average age of the region is below 50 most of the Eastern population lived most of their lives after the unification. Nonetheless the trauma that comes from unification - losing employment, or a precarious employment - may have a long lasting impact.

Whatever the reasons are for Eastern Germans tend to support radical parties, for them the most important political issue is immigration and dealing with refugees with around 26%. The second with 21% is the war in Ukraine. This is why, whether it is AfD or BSW, being on the opposite side of the economic policies, their solution for the common issues is similar. 

On Sept. 22  the next German state elections will be in Brandenburg state where the capital Berlin is located. According to the recent polls, Berlin is another stronghold of AfD and BSW is also expected to perform well. It is regarded that if Chancellor Scholz loses power in the capital area serious talks will begin about his future. 

While mainstream parties lose ground in politics, the far right AfD wins a state election for the first time, and the far left BSW makes a surprising emergence reinventing national socialism. AfD may be isolated by creating a so-called “fire wall” around and prevented from seizing power for the moment. However, to keep far right extremists away from power, BSW may become the king maker in a coalition partnership. President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin must be watching these developments rubbing his hands.