Local elections will be held in Turkey on March 31. The authorities are preparing to repeat the “spirit of the 94th”. Thirty years ago, the pro-Islamic Refah (Dobrobut) party won elections for the first time in history in the country's two largest cities - Istanbul and Ankara. Then Recep Tayyip Erdogan became the mayor of Istanbul, and the Islamists did not give way to power in this city until 2019.

Instead, five years ago, the opposition broke an endless losing streak for the first time and retook Ankara and Istanbul. This happened against the background of the unlimited power of President Erdogan. Since 2018, the head of the country has not only replaced the entire executive branch of power alone, but also partially took over the powers of the parliament, put under his own control the appointment of judges and he can also change any decision of the local authorities by his decree. The current president of Turkey has so many powers that on the eve of last year's presidential elections, the leader of the Good Party Meral Akşener calculated - only in order to sign the necessary papers, he will need to sign documents without a break for sleep and food every 16 seconds, that is, to put 36 thousand signatures every week.

It was this concentration of power that united the colorful opposition last year for the return of the parliamentary system. Erdogan's opponents lost, and the opposition coalition collapsed instantly. Now Erdogan's opponents go to local elections in separate columns and are able to lose not only those regions that they unexpectedly got 5 years ago, but also lose traditionally opposition-held cities like Izmir, Eskisehir and Antalya.

In the autumn, the largest opposition party CHP (Republican People's) re-elected its leader. Instead of 74-year-old Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, the party was led by 49-year-old Ozgur Ozel. In a short time, his management became noticeable that he is the avatar of the incumbent mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu. According to the laws of the country, the mayor of the city cannot be the leader of the party, so the actual controller of the Ataturkist party held a convenient “localist” in the chair of the chairman, who will be replaced if he loses the mayoral elections. And the loss of Imamoglu in Istanbul is almost guaranteed. 5 years ago, he won with the outspoken support of the Good Party and its leader Akşener and with the tacit support of the Kurds, who did not put up their own candidate in Istanbul. Then all the voices dissatisfied with the authorities went to Imamoglu.

The gap between him and the candidate for power Binali Yildirim was only 13,000 votes. The authorities annulled the results, and Imamoglu confirmed his victory only in the second election, bypassing his rival by 800 thousand votes. Now the situation is completely different.

Akşener openly quarrels with Imamoglu and pours water on the mill of power. Her party has put forward its own mayoral candidates everywhere, who now split the opposition vote across the country. The Kurds also put forward their own candidates.

Let's not dive into every region. The situation in Istanbul is illustrative: Imamoglu and the candidate for power Murat Kurum have about 36-38% support, 4.6% for the candidate from the Good Party, the same as for the Kurdish one. With such results, the government has every chance of winning. There is no second round in mayoral elections. In addition, Erdogan does not hesitate to openly threaten opposition cities: “You want an increase in spending on local projects - vote for the members of my team.”

Instead, the RNP may retain Mansur Yavaş as mayor of Ankara. Despite the fact that the Ankara City Council - like Istanbul's - was in the hands of the authorities, this mayor managed to increase the sympathy of the capital's residents in 5 years. And the previous mayor from Erdogan - Melih Gökçek - left not the best memories. For now, Yavaş' ratings in the capital are close to 60%, and even discord in the opposition camp is unlikely to prevent him from retaining his seat and forming his own majority in the city council.

However, the situation looks dramatic in the third largest city of the country - Izmir. It is called the fortress of secular forces. Religious parties have never won in this city, for which Izmir has been paying for many years with the lack of infrastructure projects with which Erdogan surprised the rest of the country. However, this time the Justice and Development Party has every chance to win the race in Izmir for the first time. The Republican People's Party broke its promise to hold a primary and nominated its own candidate behind the scenes. Moreover, the incumbent mayor Izmir Tunç Soyer - who also ran for the RNP - learned about his replacement a few minutes before the decision was announced. Thus, the RNP partially split at the local level, and even the Good Party takes about 8% of the vote here.

As a result, the candidate for power, Hamza Dağ, lags behind the candidate from the RNP, Camil Tugai, by only 5%.

Local elections in Turkey will close an election season that has lasted for the past two years. By 2028, there will be no elections in the country and the authorities will be able to stop the “electoral economy” by increasing salaries and social benefits. Hyperinflation has not stopped for the third year and now stands at about 70% in annual terms. Therefore, the Turks will experience all the unpopular measures of tightening their belts from the first of April.

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