DEFEATED WINNERS

For the past eight years, the country has been ruled by the populist “Law and Justice” led by Yaroslav Kaczynski. She still heads the list of parties going to the Polish Seimas, the lower house of parliament. 35.38 percent, or about eight million Poles, is a sustainable result, as many voted for her four years ago. What has changed is that people came to the polling stations who were not there last time. Long lines stood both in Poland and abroad. Therefore, the result was enough for the first place, but not to have a majority of votes in the Sejm. For the only party that partially shares the rhetoric of “Rights and Justice” - the ultra-right anti-Ukrainian “Confederation” - also scored much less than it hoped, precisely because of the high turnout, which it admits. But even together, they only get 42.5 percent, which is not enough for a parliamentary coalition.

Polish state television on Sunday evening recalled the old tape “Wedding in Malinovka” or the historical anecdote about Napoleon Bonaparte, who returns from exile to the brothers of Paris. It was necessary for the first exit polls to appear, the leaders dramatically changed the tone and stopped the devastating criticism of the main opposition leader - Donald Tusk. Yet the next morning, reflecting on the new coalition, the TVP expresses a cautious doubt: whether it will continue the policy of Law and Justice, which the latter chose between Europe and the United States; or whether it will equally resolutely resist Russia's attempts to bend Europe. Yes in the program Rachon skirtRecall: Military orders made by the still current government, which had not long left - the new American Haymars, Abrams, Apaches - raised loud doubts among military experts and politicians from the Tusk bloc, so there are fears that the new government may reconsider these orders. Immediately afterwards, they are frightened by Tusk's too much affection for Germany, a sentiment towards which the Right and Justice electorate has been nurtured for years by politicians and pro-power journalists. They say that in the German parliament there are constant calls to return to the usual course of affairs with Russia. At the same time, they quote conservative politicians who do not play a big role in Germany, and, even admitting this, insist: Berlin's desire to get along with Moscow is just a matter of time.

Law and Justice was building the image of a party that would never let that happen, because the twin brother of its leader, Yaroslav Kaczynski, then Polish President Leh Kaczynski, died in a plane crash near Smolensk, Russia. The Polish investigation found traces of explosives on the plane, this was confirmed by a British laboratory, so Yaroslav Kaczynski, blaming Putin for the crash, put the responsibility for it on the then Prime Minister of Poland, Tusk, who remained in Warsaw. What could not be doubted - “Law and Justice”, whatever domestic policy they pursue, they will not allow any rhetoric in the Russian direction, on the contrary, their electoral program promised to turn the Polish army into one of the strongest in Europe, which explains the huge orders from the American armed forces companies.

After the exit polls were announced, Yaroslav Kaczynski admitted that he could not form the next coalition, but said: in power or in the opposition, whatever, but “he will not allow to disgrace Poland”. However, his classmate, President Andrzej Duda, has already stated that according to tradition in Poland, the political force that won the elections receives the mandate to form a government, and he is not going to deviate from this tradition. It is the president who proposes the candidacy of the head of the Polish government for the adoption of the parliament. At the first meeting, the deputies of the newly elected Sejm must meet within a month. Quickly, before that, President Duda will offer them to approve the current head of government Mateusz Moravetsky as prime minister. Knowing in advance that this will not happen.

WHAT THE POLES CHOSE

Many observers, including the author of this article, expected the same crazy influx of people to the polling stations last year in Hungary, but the miracle did not happen there, on the contrary, the incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the main Ukraine-hater and Russia's friend inside the European Union, even strengthened his positions. Thanks to the rhetoric and behavior of “Rights and Justice” in the Western European press, the phrase “urbanization of Poland” managed to be engraved. This caused considerable alarm, because the two countries, who strongly disagreed with each other on Ukraine's views on EU and NATO membership and on anti-Russian sanctions, found excellent common ground as soon as it came to countering European attempts to force countries to comply with common legal norms. Unwillingness to pursue judicial reform in Poland led to a protracted conflict with Brussels, Law and Justice, in virtually the same words as Orban at home, said it would protect Poland's national interests and would not allow anyone to interfere too much in domestic affairs.

In 2020, Poland, in favor of the religious electorate, passed a law prohibiting women from having abortions. This caused violent protests within the country and criticism from the EU, which the ruling party did not think to listen to. In the same year, the Polish regional authorities in places where “Law and Justice” were very popular, began to arrange “LGBT-free” zones in their regions. This led the EU to first threaten to revise subsidy funds to the regions concerned, and last year - the European Commission took Poland and Hungary to court demanding the repeal of discriminatory laws. This is the answer to the question of why there were so many young people in the elections, and in general - people who habitually miss parliamentary demonstrations of will. Secularization of the country, that is, the separation of the state from the church, and the return to the European vector of development was in the electoral programs of all three parties that are now going to form a pro-European coalition.

However, it will be extremely difficult to teach Poland in a day, or even a year, to “live in a new way”, as the opposition leaders promised at the election speeches, will be extremely difficult. After all, the above words of the leader of “Rights and Justice” Yaroslav Kaczynski indicate that the new government will in every way be prevented from crossing out the achievements of its predecessors. President Andrzej Duda of “Rights and Justice” has the right to veto it, which requires two-thirds of the votes of the Sejm - such a majority in the new coalition is unlikely to gain. The National Bank and the Constitutional Court remain in the hands of officials from the former ruling party. And yet - in the three parties that are going to create a coalition - the center-right from the Tusk team, the conditionally Christian Democrats from the “Third Way” and the Social Democrats from the “Left” - have different views on what this new Polish life should look like. Without any of these parties, the coalition will fall apart, and Law and Justice is obviously counting on just that option now. As an example, we can take the scandalous verdict of the Constitutional Court of Poland on abortion: if the “Civic Coalition” of Tuska is simply in favor of its abolition, “Livica” wants to change the legislation even more so that access to abortion is completely unhindered, and the voters of the “Third Way” generally consider the current position to be valid. Poland is right on abortion.

After all, in the spring, new elections are ahead: to local authorities, and the struggle for seats there actually begins now. Polish society is divided like never before, and reconciliation is unlikely to come in a few months. However, just as strife is possible within a coalition of liberal democrats, not everyone is certain that Law and Justice will survive defeat and fall apart due to disputes between different groups of influence.

What the new government can do at a relatively short distance is to achieve better relations with the European Union and receive billions in European aid, to prevent it from doing so too violently - a self-defeating tactic for the Party and Justice. There is much less hope that, at least in the short term, it will be possible to restart the situation with Polish state television, which - as in fact, in Hungary - has long turned into a propaganda mechanism that does not even try to pretend that it maintains neutrality and balance of opinion. It can simply change the propaganda vector.

MIGRANT NIGHTMARE AND EXCLUSION FROM IT

In 2015, the European Union experienced a migration crisis - a humanitarian disaster caused by a massive influx of migrants from war-torn countries in Africa and the Middle East. Europe has not seen such a large number of refugees since World War II. Just like Orban of the Hungarians, Moravetsky set the Poles against migrants long before any real danger reached the borders of the country, especially since they were interested in refugees who, on old, completely unadapted boats, crossed the Mediterranean Sea at the risk of life - First of all, the countries of Western Europe, where social assistance is more developed. Numerous calls by Brussels to jointly, at the EU level, solve the problems of resettling refugees who continue to arrive by sea - have met stiff resistance from Hungary and Poland.

Warsaw was convinced to the last that it was enough just to say “no” to Brussels, and suddenly in 2021, the self-proclaimed President of Belarus Lukashenko cynically turned disadvantaged people into a tool of blackmail. He artificially created corridors, increasing the number of flights to Turkey and the countries of the Middle East - from where those who had enough plane tickets began to arrive in Minsk. From Minsk, refugees were transported in an organized manner to the Belarusian border with Poland and Lithuania - and left there for naught. Unusual for local winters, people were sick and dying of hypothermia and stormed the border every day. This forced Poland to erect a concrete wall on the border and significantly increase the number of military and equipment. On the example of these migrants, “Law and Justice” has become even easier to prove to its voters how important it is not to let anyone in the tap, and therefore vote for the only party capable of standing up to the European Union, which has already developed a draft on common quotas for resettlement. Together with Hungary, Poland has thwarted the joint declaration of the informal summit of the European Political Community in Madrid, Spain - because it refused to formulate its readiness to solve the migrant crisis together. And even declared it out loud - at the same summit.

All the more touching for many Ukrainians was the reaction of the official Warsaw to the full-scale Russian war, when Ukrainian refugees made an exception from this extremely negative attitude towards foreigners, which the state press daily inflame; now about one and a half million of our fellow citizens live in Poland, and whatever the reason for this. We can only thank the “Law and Justice” skills. The only openly anti-Ukrainian party to join the Polish Sejm - the radical right “Confederation” - made the abolition of aid to Ukrainians one of the cornerstones of its election program. The number of Poles who voted for it clearly demonstrates that Polish society did not buy into these promises, and therefore the overwhelming majority understands why solidarity with Ukraine is now a matter of national security for Poland itself.

Simultaneously with the elections, the Law and Justice Party held a manipulative referendum, designed to remind voters why it is worth voting for it. The third question in it was: “Do you support the elimination of the barrier on the border between the Republic of Poland and the Republic of Belarus?” The fourth question had an even better wording: “Do you support the admission of thousands of illegal migrants from the Middle East and Africa under the forced resettlement mechanism imposed by the European bureaucracy?” Whether to take the referendum ballots that were distributed at the polling stations was a voluntary matter. And it failed, only forty percent of Poles agreed to participate in this poll, that is, according to local law, the results of the referendum are not mandatory.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM KIEV?

In the spring of this year, Poland, like Hungary, began to demand restrictions on imports of Ukrainian grain, and pushed the European Union to order a temporary ban. It lasted until September, it was worth lifting the ban - the Polish government, contrary to the European concept of the single market, introduced its own unilateral restrictions on Ukrainian agricultural products, as did Hungary. It was obvious that for “Rights and Justice” this grain policy was not just a campaign tactic: firstly, they were going to stay in power for a long time, and secondly, they were showing Ukraine the rules under which they were ready to help it join the EU. However, Kiev did not listen to Polish demands and appealed simultaneously to Brussels and the World Trade Organization. This angered both the Polish president and the Polish government. Like Zelensky's speech from the United Nations podium, where - without calling Poland Poland - he transparently hinted that some countries are helping Russia achieve its goal. For these words, Andrzej Duda, as soon as he left the General Assembly hall, compared Ukraine to a man who is drowning and instinctively trying to drag his rescuer, namely Poland, to the bottom. However, the speech of the Ukrainian president offended not only the ruling party, for the fact that it was a mistake to bring the bilateral dispute to the level of an appearance before all the states of the world, even observers who are supportive of the opposition complained. With which Ukraine now needs to establish new relations, because now it is precisely on the goodwill of the new cabinet of ministers that will depend, in particular, assistance to Ukrainian refugees. It is unlikely to be abolished, this may cause condemnation from the European Union, with which the new cabinet, on the contrary, must be put up with, but they can, for example, reduce or change the terms of provision.

However, one should not expect that in the sphere of grain trade to Ukraine from the Polish side there is a “hot bath”, because the parties that will now join the coalition include Polish grain traders. The statements of the new government are not likely to soften much, but the tension that has persisted since September between Kiev and Warsaw has every chance to settle through a compromise. Another potential trouble for Ukraine will arise if the desire to have a strong coalition forces Tusk to invite the anti-Ukrainian “Confederation” to it, and therefore - to give it some kind of portfolio and somehow listen to its demands.

It is possible that Law and Justice will continue to defend Ukraine's membership in the EU and NATO from the opposition ranks, criticizing opponents for not paying enough attention, because anti-Russian rhetoric is its perennial constant. But there is another, much less pleasant probability for us - that after leaving power, “Law and Justice” will play the map of “Ukrainian ingratitude”, which has already been repeatedly touched during the last month of tense relations. Therefore, building friendship with the new government should not prevent Kiev from trying to preserve it with politicians who have gone into opposition. Otherwise, there is a risk of losing Poland as a consistent advocate of Ukrainian European integration as a whole.

THORNY PATH TO POWER

Today, Donald Tusk called on the president to “decide quickly”, and from the European Parliament President Duda called on the Poles to “respect the European choice”. However, Wojciech Przybylski, head of the Res Publica Foundation think tank, that this is not an easy task: to remove the country from the rails of “illiberal democracy”. In particular, because of the aforementioned unwillingness of “Rights and Justice” to give power. So, the scenario of the coming days is clear: Duda will submit a candidacy to the new Sejm Moravetskywho holds his face and declares victory on the social network. All the time before the vote, his fellow party members will spend on (with a probability of 99% useless) convincing the newly elected deputies to join them, because the agreement on the parliamentary coalition under Polish law does not need to be signed on paper, it is enough just to vote as necessary.

When Moravetsky, as everyone expects, is deprived of votes - the right to nominate a candidate for prime minister passes to the Sejm, he will most likely become Donald Tusk, an experienced politician who has already headed the Polish government. In an unlikely scenario, when he does not have enough votes, the third candidate will be proposed again by the president. Failure of this vote means early elections. However, Poland and its neighbors should not expect this, it is unlikely that politicians from pro-European parties will want to waste such a hard-won victory.

It is too early to celebrate Poland's change of political course and powerful internal reforms, as individual politicians in the European Parliament are already doing. It will take more than one year if, of course, the new coalition manages to stay in power long enough. And in addition to the fictional “Law and Justice” enemies in Brussels and Berlin, Poland has a real one, in the Kremlin. And the opportunity to intervene with all available hybrid means, further destabilizing a fragmented society, he will definitely not miss.