^{AP Photo/Vahid Salemi}

There are no shortages of new development as we near to the mid of the year. This week begins with the death of the Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. Raisi was returning from a joint opening of a dam with the Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev. The helicopter was also carrying Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, the governor of Iran's East Azerbaijan province and other officials.

While losing the President and several other important officials is important for any country, President Raisi was the second most powerful person of the country only on paper. The power resides in the hands of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei and Raisi obliged his seat to his unconditional loyalty to his leader as usual in totalitarian regimes.

After the death of Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini the first supreme leader of Iran in 1989, Khamneini removed the office of the prime minister and transferred its powers to the president to act as the executor of the orders of the leader. Previous elected presidents struggled with Khameini to use their powers independently but failed the contest.

Moreover Raisi was one of the weakest Presidents ever to come to the position. He was elected in 2021 thanks to the help of the Supreme Leader. The Guardian Council which supervises elections disqualified leading conservative and reformist candidates from running, clearing the path for Raisi. The election had a record low turnout with 49% and 13% of the attendees using invalid votes.

His presidency was important to Khamenei to solidify the influence of a new generation of ideological hardliners after the previous reformist President Hassan Rouhani. Ruhani was among those prevented from running.  Moreover, over the last twenty years the Supreme Leader's age and weak health are matters of speculation. Raisi as president would ensure a smooth succession to the republic's most important position.

Raisi was nick-named as the Butcher of Tehran as the opposition claimed that he was responsible for the retrial and execution of thousands of prisoners in the 1980s. He was also directly responsible for the arrests and executions for the anti-regime protests in 2019-2020. As a president he oversaw the heavy handed suppression of the protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, In his term the economy was also in disarray as the inflation rate has risen to 40%. Even the Khameini had to accept that “The main issue the country is facing again this year is the economy,”

Although he was a trusted yes man, it is not expected that his death will have a major impact in Iranian politics since he was simply an appointed bureaucrat. He was expected to be a candidate once again in the next elections. According to the constitutions the elections have to be performed within 50 days and in the absence of enough time to vet a new candidate it is speculated Supreme Leader’s son Mojtaba Khamenei may run. If that happens he will become a strong contender for the Supreme Leadership.

Nonetheless, conspiracy theories pointing to Israel already have begun to emerge.  Although Raisi was involved in the first direct missile and drone strike on Israel from Iranian soil in April, the attack was implemented with the authorisation of Khameini. Targeting the commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as in the strike of  the Iranian consulate annex building in Damascus, Syria on 1 April 2024, has a more destabilising effect for Israel.

Moreover, the current state of the  Iranian air forces is in derelict conditions thanks to the decades of international sanctions. The helicopter that carried the Iranian President was a civilian version of an US-made aircraft was most likely purchased during the rule of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi dating to the 1970s. According to the specialists, the aircraft was able to fly relying on visual flight conditions without electronic aids. At the moment, the maintenance deficiencies due to the sanctions and the bad weather conditions seem to be more likely reasons for the crash.

The Iranian air forces are mainly composed of ageing U.S. aircrafts acquired before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. During the search and rescue Iran had to ask the assistance of Turkey. As a response a Turkish Akinci Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) was deployed to the area and it was the first to locate the crash site. The UAV patrolled the Iranian territory for more than seven hours, and live streamed its operation, which was watched by over 2.5 million people.

The vehicle has caught once again the attention of the world publicising  the might of the Turkish drone industry. Meanwhile, here there can be more material for the conspiracy theorists, since the vehicle also had ample time in monitoring Iranian military bases located in the area. It should not be forgotten that Turkey is a NATO member and also has close relations with Azerbaijan.

Totalitarian regimes behave alike. For instance, Iran fakes elections as Russia does by eliminating strong candidates and may soon have a revolutionary dynasty similar to North Korea. It also boasts about the strength of their regime and aspires to fortify it with nuclear weapons. Nonetheless it still needs foreign help to locate the wreckage of their President compromising the state secrets. Meanwhile, China wants to integrate Taiwan as much as Russia wants to integrate Ukraine and Russia needs the support of China to win its unlawful war, risking becoming too dependent on a foreign country.

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