The importance of Crimea for Russia and Ukraine is not only symbolic. Ukraine's national security and economic development depend on its return. The Crimean port of Sevastopol (Akyar) gives the Russian Black Sea Fleet the ability to control the coastline and ports of Ukraine. In addition, Crimea is a natural gateway to the Sea of Azov. Crimea has also become a center of Russian military activity and a base for Russian air forces to attack the Black Sea and Ukraine. Ukraine has always stressed, ever since the Russian annexation in 2014, the need to return Crimea and other illegally annexed territories.

Currently, Ukraine is conducting a counter-offensive in the Crimean direction, which includes the breakthrough of the first of the three lines of defense structures. The capture of the strategic city of Tokmak in Zaporizhia is a key task. After capturing Tokmak, Ukraine will gain control of a key railway connecting Crimea with eastern Donetsk region. In addition, thanks to artillery and long-range missile systems, Ukraine will be able to control the route (M14), which connects Odessa with the Russian border east of Mariupol. However, the heavy defensive positions of the Russians in Tokmak make it difficult to capture it.

In addition, in the south of Ukraine there are two more areas where attacks on Russian defenses continue, but they cannot yet be considered breakthroughs.

In general, this counteroffensive is aimed at isolating Crimea in order to make it unsuitable for the Russian military.

Despite the interrupted Donetsk connection, the Kerch Bridge, which connects Crimea with Russia, remains functional. However, Ukraine has already damaged this bridge several times, disrupting transport connections. During his last visit to the United States, President Zelensky was promised an army tactical missile complex (ATACMS), which could be an effective means of damaging this bridge.

Ukraine is actively conducting attacks on the occupied territories of Crimea in order to make them unsuitable for the Russian administration. For example, on August 23, a radar station and an air defense system were damaged, and on September 13 a dry dock and ships in Sevastopol were damaged. On September 22, Ukraine destroyed the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, killing 105 people, including 33 officers. A leadership gap due to the loss of officers could severely weaken the Black Sea Fleet.

Ukraine's counteroffensive includes not only military actions, but also diplomatic measures.

Initially to the West, there were many “red lines” regarding the provision of military assistance to Ukraine, including the disagreement to supply armoured fighting vehicles (BMPs), tanks, anti-tank missile systems (ATMs) and jet fighters. These Western restrictions did not only concern the types of weapons, but also determined the directions in which Ukraine could conduct military operations. At the beginning of the conflict, rebel leaders trying to reach a ceasefire often stressed that the loss of the annexed territories of Crimea and Donbas may have to be acknowledged.

Ukraine has crossed these “red lines”, forcing the West to grasp the reality of the ongoing war with Russia. The first successes on the battlefield helped the West restore faith in its own military power. Violations of the Russian border by military groups from Ukraine and long-range attacks on Belgorod demonstrated that Russia's territory is not inviolable. This is followed by Ukraine's attack on Moscow with the help of homemade drones. All this suggests that even without Western intervention, Ukraine can attack Russian territory, and Russia is not prepared to respond or escalate the conflict as easily as before.

While these achievements are helping to overcome Western resistance to supplying Ukraine with military equipment capable of attacking beyond Russia's borders, diplomatic actions such as appointing a foreign minister of Crimean Tatar origin and organizing summits, such as the Crimean Platform, emphasize the need for Crimea's return.

While these achievements are helping to overcome Western resistance to supplying Ukraine with military equipment capable of attacking beyond Russia's borders, diplomatic actions such as appointing a foreign minister of Crimean Tatar origin and organizing summits, such as the Crimean Platform, emphasize the need for Crimea's return.

Now the West is worried about the possible consequences if Russia falls into chaos after Ukraine's victory, and about the fate of Russian nuclear weapons in the event of Russia's collapse. Similar concerns arose during the collapse of the Soviet Union, but new states were created without large-scale anarchy. However, past “red lines” prevented the West from supporting the Republic of Ichkeria, and the Russian-Chechen war became a prologue to events in Ukraine.

The main obstacle for Ukraine in returning the occupied and annexed territories is Western anxiety and war fatigue. Ukraine needs to convince the West that victory is possible and safe if appropriate weapons are used.

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