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Photo: Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Reuters
Last week, President Zelensky was once again on the road in search of more military and political support. After President Biden cancelled his trip to Germany to be present when Hurricane Milton hit the USA, Zelensky decided to visit major European allies - the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Germany. The cancelled summit to coordinate the military aid for Kyiv would allow Zelensky to interact with all the key five allies at once. Instead Zelensky had to visit Ukraine’s allies separately in 36 hours to present his 'victory plan' to end the war.
The victory plan as outlined today in the Ukrainian parliament consists of five key points:
The victory plan also has three secret additions that are shared only with Ukraine's allies.
In his first stop in London he met with UK Prime Minister Starmer and NATO chief Rutte. He asked permission to use the donated military equipment to hit deep inside Russia to enforce conditions to end the war. NATO chief answered that there were no legal impediments that prevent using the military equipment on Russian targets, if they are a threat to Ukraine. However, whether individual allies would allow it is the decision of the individual allies. The question of whether the answer was a coincidence that it sounds like taken from the classic BBC sitcom ‘Yes, Minister’ or in fact actually the series inspired the NATO chief stays to the historians.
In his second stop in Paris, Macron had no problem with the use of SCALP cruise missiles - the French version of Britain's Storm Shadow and repeated to keep France’s promises including 3 billion euros support for this year. However because of budget deficits France is behind in military support that Macron promised to stop criticism of doing less than other countries. The French President on the eve of the meeting met the Ukrainian division that is trained in Eastern France and found their performance excellent. Whether the political turmoil in France is the reason for his low performance or it is an excuse is another question for historians.
The third stop was in Rome with the Italian prime minister Meloni who is against the use of their long-range cruise missile Storm Shadows in Russia. Though she repeated Italy’s pledge to help Ukraine for as long as necessary. Moreover Meloni announced that Rome will host the next Ukraine Recovery Conference to help Ukraine's reconstruction in July 2025. The Italian prime minister is a rare example of a far-right leader that supports Ukraine against Russian aggression, despite the low support of Italians and criticism of her allies. Nonetheless Italy is far behind other European countries in military aid.
The fourth stop was in Berlin to meet with German Chancellor Scholtz fourth time this year in the most important meetings since the war began as Zelensky put it. Scholz promised an additional 1.4 billion euro military aid package for Ukraine by the end of 2024 as a signal to Russia that the West would not stop supporting Kyiv. However he did not even mention about the Taurus missiles that Ukraine has asked for since the beginning of the war and speeding up Ukraine’s accession to NATO.
While Zelensky works hard to fulfil his duty to supply Ukraine’s defence forces and support its economy, the war fatigue of European countries grows, his celebrity status wears down. While Ukraine faces its toughest winter since the full-scale invasion as Russia strikes on the country’s power grid and advances across the eastern front line, his whirlwind tour succeeded in obtaining just more pledges. In return he had to pronounce that 2025 may be the last year of the war if he gets the support.
Moreover, as we learn from his presentation in the Ukrainian Parliament, as a return for the support of US and EU, Ukraine is ready to give certain important concessions to its allies like exploitation rights of its natural resources and undertake some of the burden of protection of Europe from the US by offering its battle-hardened military. Will they be enough to sweeten the pot for the supporters of Ukraine remains as a question. Maybe the secret addendum of the plan contains additional sweeteners to be more convincing. Nonetheless four months to the third year of the war Ukraine needs to incentivise the Western coalition to be more decisive and daring in their support.
Happiest of all on the outcome of his tour is Russia calling Zelensky to 'sober up' to the dreadful situation of his armed forces in the battlefield and recommending European backers to stop 'unnecessary spending'. Maybe this is why Zelensky included a visit to Pope Francis. While the Vatican may not provide either military or financial aid to Ukraine may intermediate the most necessary divine intervention to make Europeans understand that Ukraine's defeat would also be Europe's defeat and that the responsibility would be on their shortsighted inept leaders.
