I’m afraid I feel compelled to start my update for today with yet more of my expressions of amazement: this week I was nothing but mesmerised by sights and demonstrations of endless political incompetence in ‘the West’.

For example, right after Netanyahu walked out of a meeting with Biden – because the latter dared demanding a 21-days-long ceasefire in… not sure any more if it was the Gaza Strip, the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, and Syria, and Yemen… and all of the Middle East… hard to say considering how eloquently has Bibi ‘spilled’ his ‘war on Hamas’ all over the entire geographic area…., Biden received Zelensky at the White House….so he could enjoy some of the latter granting him yet more patronising.

Now, gauging by how is Biden meanwhile treating journos working at the White House (but, certainly not Netanyahu), and that in public…well, don’t want to imagine how is he treating Zelensky ‘behind the closed doors’: that damn kiddo is not only refusing to lose that damn war in Ukraine, but also dares messing around with his plans and war-modelling at every opportunity!

In turn, I doubt I would be as diplomatic in Zelensky’s position, regardless the circumstances or what’s at stake: it’s far more likely I would end up treating Biden exactly like Netanyahu does. Like somebody that deserves being humiliated at every opportunity… in public, too.

Why?
Simply because it’s a matter of fact that it works. While Zelensky’s ‘diplomatic’ and ‘kind’ approach doesn’t.

But, that’s unimportant. What’s much more important: Biden pledged billions in military aid. No, not only for Israel: for Ukraine, too. Even issued direct presidential orders in this regards. Probably because his hands were tied, not his shoelaces, and thus he couldn’t do the same already months, if not years ago, and was then busy re-routing all the ammo to Israel, of course…. Point is: new arms to be shipped to Ukraine are going to include AGM-154 JASSM stand-off missiles for PSU’s F-16AMs, and ammunition for HIMARS and armoured vehicles and much, much more….

As usually, Trump is going to counter that not only US§ 300 billion, but 2-5 Trillion are being wasted in Ukraine, while actually, 90%+ of the money in question is going to be spent in the USA. However, even that is unimportant: what is important is that – based on experiences over the last 2,5 years - nobody (whether in the USA or abroad) can say if anything of this is actually going to be delivered (to Ukraine), nor by when; even less so if the flow of aid (to Ukraine) is going to be continued past January 2025 (that to Israel is secured, don’t worry). And nobody is accountable. But hey: why bother? The social media considers it for done; the mainstream media has some ‘good news’ and ‘sensations’, and everybody’s happy now. At least as important is that now everybody has something to quote. See, Biden said, ‘Russia is not going to win this war: Ukraine is going to win.’

Oh yes, that’s certain. Point is: certainly not thanks to the Trio Fantasticus or the USA…

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Whoever might expect it’s anything better on the eastern side of the ‘Great Barn’… say, some 4,000 or so kilometres east: it’s not. For example, hard on heels of van der Leyen announcing a ‘staggering’ €40 million in aid for repairs of critical infra-structure in Ukraine, the Netherlands is following with a similar pledge: €200+ million for repairs of critical infra-structure….

Isn’t that great?

Of course it is! They’re going to repair critical infra-structure in Ukraine, so Russia can destroy the same – because the EU didn’t deliver air defence systems and missiles necessary to protect the same (sure: Biden said USA are going to deliver another – one [in digits: 1] – Patriot SAM-system but, alas, this first has to be refurbished…). So they can then announce another air package for repairs of critical infra-structure, perhaps even actually provide the money and repair the same, and then the Russians are going to destroy it again…

Now, lean back and take a deep breath. Think of it. Is there any better scheme for endless laundering of taxpayer’s money into pockets of oligarchy, in turn securing endless profit – on the Wall Street, for example?

For the start: all the zombie idiots in question ‘did something’. Nobody can deny that. Secondly, everything is perfectly legal. Thirdly: they can say they have either created or at least secured jobs. And, fourthly: nobody is accountable.

With other words: it’s exactly the same scheme that worked such miracles already in Afghanistan and Iraq. For 20 years in each case.

So, why not in Ukraine, too?

What am I talking about….?

Well, 40+200 million might not sound as much. But, that’s ‘just for this month’: don’t worry, much more is to follow. And then think of it: banks – which are already sitting on hundreds of billions of ‘frozen’ Russian money – are going to earn from all the endless wire-transfers for equipment for Ukrainian critical infra-structure that’s going to be destroyed by Russian missiles, plus processing acquisitions of necessary replacements, which are going to be destroyed, too, requiring yet more replacements and repairs... Insurances are going to earn from insuring the production and transportation of this equipment and the people involved. Industry is going to earn from acquiring, manufacturing and delivering equipment that’s going to be destroyed (for which it must lend from banks), and then from delivering replacements – all of which is great news for the transportation and services sectors, too… while, which is most important of course, stock exchanges can keep on earning from gambling about who’s going to earn the msot… and mind: the EU and its members can go on like this forever.

And you, dear taxpayer, are then going to be distracted – through entertainment like Champions League, NFL, or Formula 1. So that the sports and media can earn, too…

Simply perfect.

Can’t help it: in the media, every day we get to hear about ‘organised crime’. Hand on heart: that’s nothing in comparison. At most it’s a problem because the majority of those involved are not paying taxes from that type of business. While banks, insurances etc. ‘do’. Actually, its banks, insurances, and the industry that are the true ‘organised crime’. Indeed: state-sanctioned, perfectly organised crime, wearing suits cut by best tailors and sponsored by your taxpayer’s money. In comparison, instances like Mexican and Colombian cartels, or the notorious Italian ‘mafia/cosa nostra’ – are all bloody amateurs busying themselves with peanuts.

Not that it’s going to change anything at all, but: let me remind everybody that the practice of stifling on ideas that so obviously do not work, and have nothing in common with reality, is a definition of a dogmatic, failed ideology.

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AIR/MISSILE WAR

After running at least three major UAV strikes on three different ammo depots in Russia – which, according to different estimates, might have destroyed up to 80,000 tons of artillery ammunition, rockets and missiles – Ukraine took a few days off in this regards. Obviously, the output of the UAV industry is still not sufficient to keep the rate of such attacks at the necessary levels.

Which reminds me of something I intended to cover already the last weekend, but did not manage to do for lack of time. Namely, RUMINT has it that – sometimes the last week – the People’s Republic of China imposed strict limitations on export of UAV-related equipment and spares to Ukraine (while at the same time reinforcing its exports of contraband to Russia). Accordingly, the Chinese de-facto cut off the export of crucial parts for Ukrainian UAVs. RUMINT also has it, this promptly resulted in a major problem with production of UAVs and – especially – FPVs in Ukraine. And that it’s going to take months to solve..

Just one example for all the kind of parts, assemblies, and sub-assemblies installed into every single UAV, and widely imported by Ukraine from the PR China in the last 2,5 years..

Man, what a beautiful example for competent authorities bringing brilliant and timely decisions based on endless wisdom and far-sight…

But, hand on heart: why should Ukraine do better than when the US Navy is buying Chinese chips and sub-assemblies for its aircraft carriers and Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighter-bombers..?

Moreover: hey: that’s just me, and my usual hogwash. Exactly the same like few weeks ago, when I’ve reported that the Telegram has been compromised – and nobody [in Ukraine] ‘believed’ that. People were stunned and writing me private messages and e-mails with content like, ‘no way’. Obviously, the Ukrainian authorities banning the use of that social media platform is a clear confirmation that I was wrong…

Ah well…Yes, I’m ranting once again… but, heck: what shall I do amid all of this super-competence, ultra-wise decision-making with far-sight all the way to Saturn, and this kind of incredibly highly professional strategy – all of which are promising to end this war in a matter of hours….

OK. Then lets do something that’s making so much more sense: like quoting PSU’s claims for interceptions of yet additional Russian UAVs…

24 Sep: 66 Shaheds claimed as shot down, other 13 as jammed.

25 Sep: 4 Kh-59/69 and 28 Shaheds claimed as shot down.

26 Sep: 4 Kh-59/69 and 66 (out of 78) Shaheds..

What exactly was hit by Shades that did get through… I doubt even the heaven knows any more. Simply because it’s hard to keep a track through trying to call people and cross-check related reporting in the social media any more: official Kyiv remains zip-lip about this.

Thus, lets talk about something else. For example, please mind that each one of at least about 30-40% of these interceptions mean that the PSU has spent at least one (1) surface-to-air missile.

Correspondingly, the PSU is spending, say, 10-30 SAMs every single day - and that at the times all of ‘the Western’ industry is turning out some 10-30 a week.

Isn’t that highly promising?

Let me distract you from unpleasant thoughts: look, a wonderful photo of Ukrainian-made MIM-23 HAWK SAM-decoys!

….better I switch over to ground warfare: that’s to follow in the Part 2.

(…to be continued…)

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….and now a review of latest developments on the battlefield.

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Kursk… (Russian Federation)

….generally, it’s ‘quiet’, the last 4-5 days. The last week, the Ukrainians smashed the Russian counter-offensive, but in turn failed to seize Glushkovo. The Russians are not really ‘exhausted’: they’re all the time trying to patch up the chaos created by the GenStab rushing elements from 30+ different regiments, brigades, and divisions to the Kursk Oblast, and Putin then subjecting these to the FSB-control, and the FSB then successfully losing up to 20,000 out of 40,000 troops it’s got assigned for this purpose. Of course, minor Russian attacks are run all the time, especially in the area between Snegost, LIubimovka and Obukhovka. Foremost by the 51st and 56th VDV Regiments, and a battalion of the 200th Motor-Rifle Brigade.

The Ukrainians are busy rotating tired battalions out and fresh in.

That said, it’s actually so that the Russians are simply too busy for fighting: the last few days glorious defenders of the Group Sever were systematically looting local business and private homes – and that all over south-western Kursk. Yes, they’re looting Russian possessions from Russians. The Group Sever’s chain of command is still in tatters, and it hasn’t got enough military police to bring the situation under control. Therefore, better be sure than sorry….

And so, the only ‘major action’ of the last 4-5 days were counterattacks of the 155^th NIB Novy Put and Veseloe, both of which were repelled. But, don’t worry: the FSB is keen to continue fighting – to the last ‘naval infantryman’ of that unit.

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Northern Kharkiv… at least there are better news from Vovchansk: since around 20 September, the ZSU - which is including the Russian Free Legion - is advancing into northern parts of the town. Meanwhile, they’re actually trying to push the Russians out of their remaining positions in northern Vovchanks (or the ruins of what was once Vovchansk). The Russians have withdrawn so many of their troops to Kursk, that they can’t stand the pressure. Sure, the VSRF is, time and again, running some small counterattacks in the Hlyboke area, but these are quickly dealt with.

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BATTLE OF DONBAS

Kupyansk-Svatove…minor Russian attacks, like all the time.

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Kremina… The Russians have widened their penetration of the ZSU frontline in the Pishchane area, and are only about 1000 metres outside Kruhliakivka and thus the Oskil River. The 110^th and the 115^th Mech are fighting back with everything they’ve got, but that’s simply not enough. As mentioned in one of my last updates: the GenStab-U can be expected to send reinforcements in January or so…

Must admit, I didn’t pay attention at the southern sector of this part of the frontline, the least a month. Thus, it surprised me to find out the Russians have entered Makiivka and Nevske, north of Terny. It also surprised me that it’s once again on the 66^th Mech to play a fire-brigade in this area. Never mind: it’s yet another of ZSU units fighting for years without respite (the last I recall the 66^th was ‘free’, was back in August 2022). The only difference to certain other cases is that the 66^th was reinforced, few months ago, when receiving a battalion of Latin American volunteers: hope its command has meanwhile learned to appreciate the presence of these highly experienced and though fighters.

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Bakhmut… at least there are no bad news from Chasiv Yar. Rather the usual story: the Russians are assaulting over the Donbas-Siversky Donets Canal, get smashed to pieces, then send another gang to assault again…

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Toretsk... the last week, the Russians were assaulting like crazy. Sure, they’re certainly attacking – down the Lisna Street, for example, and from Niu-York towards north. But, my impression is that this week their operations are not as intensive as the last one.

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Pokrovsk…the town is largely evacuated, but there are still around 16,000 civilians inside. Some of these can’t evacuate on their own. Others are busy uninstalling the town’s infrastructure. Problem: two out of three bridges leading out of Pokrovsk have been destroyed by the Russian air strikes and artillery, meanwhile. I.e. if somebody is still inside, cannot but recommend: get out of there.

Pokrovsk…north… to my surprise, the Russians have changed direction of their attacks: instead towards West, from Novohrodivka to Lysivka, they attacked from Mykolaivka in northern direction, on Myrnohrad. Perhaps they’re in the rush to overcome the outer ZSU perimeter around Pokrovsk before the mud of October?

We’ll see.

Certain is that it was once again on the 425^th ‘Skala’ Battalion to play the fire-brigade and stop them.

Why?

Because the super-brains of the GenStab-U have deployed the inexperienced 71^st Jäger and 152^nd Mech, plus two battalions of the Territorial Defence to ‘defend’ the sector.

Really: must write myself a note to keep an eye on this sector all the time, otherwise the GenStab-U is promptly going to withdraw even the last of elite brigades of the National Guard…

Pokrovsk…south… The 15^th NG Kara-Dag is holding nicely in Selydove, which is why the Russians are meanwhile trying it around the southern side of that town: from Ukrainsk in western direction. A sector defended by the troops of the lonesome 14^th Motorised Regiment. Moreover, the Russians are pushing from Ukrainsk in southern direction, trying to enter Hirnyk, defended by the 59^th Motorised and parts of the 118^th Mechanised. The latter two have successfully held out until the bridgehead east of the Vovcha River was almost completely evacuated (the 59^th Motorised is still holding a perimeter on the eastern side of the river). South of there, the Russians continued losing dozens of armoured fighting vehicles and hundreds of troops a day while trying to reach Kurakhove by advances run north of Maksymilianivka.

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Vuhledar… a lot of readers are asking what’s up there.

Have, briefly, covered this sector on 17 and 20 September. Essentially, the town is completely demolished: it’s so utterly destroyed and mined that even if the war would be over right now, it would take at least 5-6 years to de-mine and remove all the unexploded ordnance, just in order to enable the start of reconstruction. And the two ZSU units holding it – the mauled, dead-tired, and shamefully forgotten 72^nd Mech, and a battalion of the 58^th Motorised (the latter, actually, seems to be holding the way out of Vuhledar open, so the 72^nd can withdraw) – are in the process of withdrawing out of what was once Vuhledar for more than a week.

Why so slowly?

When done properly – and the 72^nd Mech is a good unit, regardless how exhausted – a withdrawal is run in a step-by-step fashion, with cool heads and good organisation. So that nobody is left behind, and all the abandoned positions tiddly mined.

The Russian shelling of Vuhledar on 22 September…

…and the Russian shelling of Vuhledar by incendiary ammunition, on 24-25 September: is a ‘usual scene’ in battles of this kind ever since the failures of early Russian assaults on Izyum, back in March 2022…

As for why is the 72^nd withdrawing: well, what would be the point of trying to hold positions if Kyiv is persistently ignoring it, and neither sending replacements, nor reinforcements, or artillery and mortar ammunition?

When there is nothing of that, there’s no point in trying to hold out.

Unsurprisingly, the Russians have meanwhile secured the fields west and east of the ruined town, and as of 25 September, began assaulting into the ruins.

Of course, all the possible Experten are already declaring the ruins of Vuhledar for ‘unimportant’. Well, yes: a completely ruined town is unimportant. There’s no use of it.

In peace.

However, at war, mind that even in ruined condition, Vuhledar was offering an excellent defence position. Probably the best such position in this part of Ukraine – and for the next 30 or more kilometres further north and west. So much so, the 72^nd Mech held out there even when Bakhmut fell (where Bakhmut fell despite deployment of 25+ battalions from almost as many brigades…just like Avdiivka fell although being defended by multiple brigades).

So, now, perhaps Vuhledar is unimportant. And yes, it’s always better to withdraw and save troops from a position they can’t hold. But, please, somebody from the GenStab-U: be so kind, go there, meet and talk soldiers of the 72^nd and 58^th, and explain them how they should be proud and in high spirits, and by no means demoralised, for holding out although the top of the ZSU did its best to ignore them for longer than two years, eventually leaving them no other choice but to lose this battle. And then explain them what super-turbo defence positions have not been constructed further west and north-west, so that as next the troops that have survived and won at Moshchun (thus saving Kyiv, back in March 2022), plus two years of Vuhledar, have to spend the coming winter fighting and dying in the open steppe.

With other words: this was… ah sorry: is not yet, but is going to be yet another, entirely unnecessary loss for Ukraine.

And as a ‘consequences first’-guy, I cannot but wonder: in few years, when the Russians are kicked (in high loop, that’s sure) out of the country: what a mess are Ukrainians going to find in this area…? Alone because of 15-20km deep Russian minefields south of Vuhledar, and then another 10 or so kilometres of Ukrainian minefields around and north of it… Can only hope, by then somebody is going to tear off Sodol’s- and epaulettes of few other generals, and assign them to mine-clearing duties (following appropriate training, of course).

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