collage: The Standard

In an old movie, one character describes the difference between the Americans and the Japanese: ‘When an American has nervous breakdown opens the window and shoots a couple of people. When a Japanese person has a nervous breakdown closes the window and shoots himself.’ Indeed, in the West a trembling hand may indicate fear and the owner of the hand may feel the need to hide it. However, the same hand in the East may be perceived as the owner losing  temper and that never bids good. Even the owner of the hand may exaggerate the tremor. 

Generalisations work to make a point rather than to describe a rule. Think about the Russian nuclear threats against sidestepping its red lines in its war in Ukraine and President Biden’s ambiguous reply about its consequences without mentioning the US nuclear arsenal. Till today, may God forbid, no mushroom clouds have been witnessed. 

Last week Iran struck several targets in Iraq, Syria and Pakistan. It was well understood that Iran had to retaliate - not be seen as weak - to the explosions during a memorial ceremony. While Iran’s strike on targets in Iraq and Syria was expected, hitting on friendly Pakistan was confusing. Although the Iranian claim that rebel targets were hit, gave a sense of consistency to their action, it was nonetheless at the expense of hurting the good relations with Pakistan and raised up the eyebrows in the West. Indeed the offended Pakistan obliged to retaliate hitting targets deep inside Iran. Since the Iran-Iraq war that ended in 1988, Iran had not received such a hit into its territory. 

Maybe Iran was showing its trembling hand to the World giving the message of - don’t test me! Israel might have understood so and organised an air raid on a residential building in Syria’s capital, Damascus killing five Iranian “military advisers”. Should we interpret it as ‘let’s don't hold you?’.

The Middle-East has been a powder keg even when peace ruled in the area. While the Israel-Hamas war continues it is definitely a more dangerous place. What would Iran do, if it did not intend to escalate, but prevent looking vulnerable? The best way could be a complaint to the schoolmaster to intervene. Indeed later, Iran backed rebels hit a US base in Northern Iraq wounding an undisclosed number of American soldiers. 

Iran  is in no good terms with the US, as the US sanctions squeezes the Iranian economy and  they haven't had formal diplomatic relations since 1980. On the other hand the US and its favourite, Israel are not on good terms either. The current crisis in the Middle-East negatively affects both the election campaign of President Biden and the position of the US in the world. However, the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu prioritises his personal well being and refuses a two state solution for a peace. So a well articulated response to the Israeli attacks could convince the US to take a firmer stance towards Israel.

It is also hard to attribute the expansionism only to the Eastern countries. Indeed after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the West expanded towards Russia through integrating ex-Iron Block and Baltic countries through NATO and European Union. Again the difference is in the methods as the West offers co-prosperity and a defensive alliance. On the other hand Russian expansion uses the military and with the invasion of Ukraine even a separate Ukrainian identity is denied. Indeed Russia expects total compliance from all other nations living under its authority while offering nothing in return. 

The ways of the West and the East may be different, but several of their problems are also the same. For example the decline in fertility affects both Russia, China and Europe. China finds it hard to reverse the effects of its one child policy. In 2023, the Chinese population decreased by 2.08 million which was  twice of previous year. While young Chinese people reluctant to marry and have children because of economic reasons, propaganda and the suppression of the minorities to the extend of genocide like Uyghur people do not help to overcome fertility problem.

Russia tries to alleviate their decline in fertility by prohibitive measures like banning abortion and ‘LGBTQ movement’ as an ‘extremist organisation’. As the women may return to folk medicine and unqualified persons, the prohibitive measures may only lead to further health problems. Also, it should be obvious that any war, high attrition or not, is not the best way to solve fertility issues.

In Europe, France also recently felt  a sharp decline in fertility as its lowest annual birth rate since World War II is recorded. Till recently, France boasted of its comparatively high birth rate which was an exception in Europe.  However, France, contrary to Russia and China, plans to fight its problem by encouraging fertility by shorter but better paid 'childbirth leave' and better plans for infertility treatments, instead of prohibitory measures and propaganda. 

The funny detail was that President Macron called his action the 'Demographic rearmament'. The name of his action plan seemed more befitting to the militaristic approach of the East. However, it might be the necessary language that attracts the attention of the current lazy and attention deficit masses by using keywords like rearmament that resonate with the headlines. Or maybe it is a way of saying that France may not spend enough of its budget on its army to prepare for an attack on NATO but at least works in the rearmament of its civilian population, whatever that 'Demographic rearmament’ means.