Collage The Gaze

For the countries who passed through a transition period, an autocracy that brings stability and predictability is preferable to the chaos of the transition. That was so, for the ancient Romans who welcomed an emperor after decades of civil wars in the Republic. That is why Napoleon became an emperor after the Terror of the French Revolution. This is why Russians traded democracy for the stability of the Putin regime that enabled them to find food in the local store. The social contract in the autocratic regimes is simple: “eat and shut up!”

President Putin knows the transformative power of the chaotic periods and during the last two years learned that his country is not strong enough to conquer Ukraine. However, one may not be strong enough to conquer but strong enough to bring chaos. Russian missile strikes aim mainly civilians and the infrastructure rather than the military targets, to create the chaos he needs.

As the war enters its third year, to question whether the Russian missile stockpile is depleting becomes a classic. As the only data about their missile production is at their hands, any other prediction is just a guesswork. However, no resources are infinite and any Ukrainian strike on the aggressor’s territory is countered by a diarrhoea of missile and drone attacks. Without dispute these attacks lead to the intended aim, but also Russia uses highly valuable military equipment on non-military targets while their soldiers struggle to make any meaningful advance in the hard winter conditions. This may be the intended outcome of the Ukrainian strategy, provoking Russia to use its missiles, to prevent them being used more efficiently in the combat.

The mentality of the two sides is polar opposites of each other. Over the last two years we witnessed that ingenuity and finesse in the battlefield is superior to the brute force, but Russia still insists on expensive operations targeting civilian morale spending hardly obtained resources. Instead, President Zelensky wants to improve their First-Person View (FPV) drone fleet by adding a million new drones in 2024.

These drones are quite effective on the front line in disrupting Russian advance and also are quite cheap to manufacture. Since the Western aid is delayed and might be heavily cut in the coming years, the war economics requires new approaches. The cost of the proposed Ukrainian drone fleet from 300 USD per drone would be equal to the price of 30 Kinzhal missiles. Even a single 155mm artillery shell - today may cost up to 8000 Euros because of the demand - would buy 30 drones. 

It is quite interesting that Russia does not seek success on the battlefield more determinedly and instead brainstorms on how to twist arms and push the West into chaos. In the beginning of the invasion President Putin was sure that Europe would freeze during its first winter. In its second winter, Russia is the one that suffers from heating outages, though the reason for the frozen homes is the corrupt inefficient administration rather than the energy supply. 

It is true that partially the increase in the living cost popularised far right rhetoric in Europe forcing left and central political parties to shift to rightist discourse. However after the war in Europe the far right gained only a limited victory. German Federal elections are two years and France Presidential elections three years away. There are still several years for a possible change in the political climate. Moreover, the West slowly realises that imitation of the far right does not benefit as the original appeals more than its counterfeit. Certainly the far-right will be confronted with alternative solutions that may appeal to Europeans more. 

President Putin has strong confidence that Western coalition behind Ukraine will crumble soon. It is true that there are signs of this disintegration, but the President, as he is a former master spy, will feel the need to ensure its collapse by interfering in the US elections in favour of Donald Trump. The general approach of Russia is to find a solution to the problems away from the battlefield, be it stopping the Ukrainian grain from reaching the world market, be it reactivating SMERSH as a mind game for the West or hoping that other conflicts divert attention from Ukraine or the Presidential elections of the USA.

It is possible that as President Putin came into power through the chaos of the collapse of the Soviet Union doesn't know many other tools for success. Maybe as he is a spy and he witnessed the Soviet-Afghan war does not have much faith in the army. Or maybe his biggest and only real challenge was the Chechen war and the success came only after the assassination of their leader Dzhokhar Dudayev which required a covert operation. Nonetheless it is obvious that after two years of war, Russia depends too much on intrigues and fancy footwork. However a war is won on the battlefield.