A Turkish proverb roughly translates to “Don't believe in fortune telling and don't stay without it”. So if we follow this advice, the astrologers inform us that Pluto, the ex-planet, and the new planetoid of transformation, destruction and renewal moves into the House of Aquarius. The planet is a slow mover and changes signs every 11 to 35 years. So it means in 2024, humanity enters a new era through the destruction, transformation and reformation of the previous one. 

We humans rarely like such drastic changes as another proverb this time from the USA, wisely puts it as “if it ain't broke, don't fix it!”. Generally keeping the status quo and slightly improving some areas that really need improvement is preferred. For the people who care about world politics, the Russo-Ukrainian war really needs some improvement and the heavens promise that there won't be a stalemate in 2024.

Indeed, 2024 might be the beginning of a new chapter for the future historians. However it is timidly pronounced and unfortunately, the nature of the new era is tightly linked to the results of the Presidential elections in the USA. If the isolationist Republicans under the leadership of Donald Trump come into power, it is most likely that US military and political support to Ukraine will be cut. Moreover, Trump already acknowledged that “I don’t give a shit about NATO.” So even if the US does not abandon NATO, its commitment to the alliance would be in doubt, leading adversary countries to behave recklessly, even daring to a nuclear attack on Ukraine and where else if they go with it.

Democratic countries of Asia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan would also be shaken with the unreliable US support. Each country has its territorial or sovereignty disputes with either Russia or China. For example, after the Japanese surrender in WWII the Soviet Union had seized four islands off the shore of Hokkaido. Today Russia refuses negotiations and even rejects the existence of any territorial disputes with Japan. Also, the undependable US protection would strengthen Chinese dominance in the region putting a huge pressure on these countries. Moreover, a possible Trump administration would be more aggressive in protecting the American economy and they contemplate a universal 10% tax on imports. This would break all hopes that if the war reaches a stalemate, China may interfere to convince Russia for a peace deal.

Today, the rather understandable decision of Turkey in not allowing minesweeping ships to cross to the Black Sea to be delivered to Ukraine, is perceived by the West as not in tune with NATO. However if the US adopts an isolationist foreign policy, countries like Turkey and Hungary might feel even less obliged to the alliance. 

Moreover, Russia supports far right politicians in Europe to come to power. At the moment their success is inversely proportional to the  population and the economic strength of the countries, but in the case of a Russian victory in Ukraine, their influence on Europe may evolve gradually to a hegemony and the resistance of the larger European countries to far right politics would weaken.

It is quite probable that the Biden administration will secure the stalled 61.4 billion USD military aid before the elections and this would fulfil the needs of Ukraine for 2024. However, if Trump becomes President a second term, Europe would need to carry the weight alone. They may not be willing to do so and instead prefer to use their resources to build up their defences against Russia.

There are almost nine months till the US presidential elections and Mr. Trump seems to be the Republican candidate and the polls show that he is ahead of President Biden in several critical states. At the moment astrology and polls are equally trustable in predicting the results in November because approval rates of the candidates do not reflect proportionally to the electoral college which finally elects the president. In addition, even who will be the candidates are not established yet.

On the other side, in Russia under any circumstances it is sure that President Putin will be re-elected. However, it seems that the President is also equally sure that the Western support to Ukraine will also weaken soon. His assurance may arise from the belief that Mr. Trump will win the elections and he can be convinced to make decisions that will benefit Russia.

However, if he consulted on the stars rather than the shamans of Siberia, he would be aware of the movement of Pluto. Even though Mr. Trump becomes the next president, his chaotic personality might realise that hundreds of billions of USD aid to Ukraine may actually benefit immensely the American military industry and his import taxes might leverage China’s stance away from Russia. Who knows Aquarius is the house of liberal thought and innovation after all.