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After six weeks of Israel-Hamas war, a fragile ceasefire interrupts hostilities in the Gaza strip. The background of the agreement is the exchange of 50 civilian women and children hostages held by Hamas for the 150 Palestinian prisoners in Israel. In addition to the exchange Israel will allow the delivery of much needed humanitarian aid in the form of food, medicines and fuel to Gaza. The deal will be open to extension for an extra day for each 10 additional hostages released by Hamas for which Israel also will release additional prisoners.

However the extension of the truce may not be as straightforward as expected. 

According to the estimates Hamas holds about 240 hostages which are composed of three different groups - women and children, foreign nationals, military personnel. Each group may be assessed with a different “value of exchange” by Hamas  and it may be harder to negotiate both the extension of the ceasefire and the number of prisoners to be released by Israel.

Sides - Hamas and Israel - face different pressures for both to maintain a ceasefire and to break it. Hamas more or less achieved its aim to pull Israel to Gaza that resulted in inflicting enormous casualties on the Palestinian civilians which devalued Israel in the world public opinion. However Hamas may also have suffered more than they accepted inflicting less than 100 military casualties for Israel. So at the moment a truce is much needed by Hamas to reorganise. 

On the other hand Israel suffers the consequences of poor decision making of President Netanyahu who has acted without a proper plan and militarily unobtainable aims. The success was defined with three main objectives - seize Gaza, destroy Hamas, and liberate hostages. The first aim to seize Gaza is partially achieved by controlling the majority of the city but the real challenge is the underground tunnels that are estimated to extend for 400 kilometres. What is discovered of the tunnels so far by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is just the tip of the iceberg and there is not a map for the so-called Gaza Metro. Even though there was a map, the tunnels are easy to defend and may also hold hostages as a shield.

The second objective, to destroy Hamas that most probably was even more important than rescuing the hostages, might be not possible at all by military means. To be successful in this objective,  the IDF has to discover and penetrate the tunnels to hunt down the Hamas leadership and the majority of its militia. On the other hand Hamas succeeds simply by surviving. The IDF operations have already caused an estimated 15,000 civilian casualties of which 7,000 are children distancing Western countries from Israel.

The third aim, rescue of the hostages, seems to be solved with the ceasefire agreement, but the release of the first 50 hostages is just the beginning of a long arduous journey. First the efficient communication between Hamas militants is cripled in the devastated city. The coordination and maintenance of the ceasefire and the release of the hostages will be a challenge for Hamas. Moreover Hamas is not the only group in the city  that is hostile to Israel. Smaller groups including Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) may not obey the ceasefire.   

Nonetheless the truce is a success of the mediators - US, Qatar and Egypt - and is a hope for a lasting peace treaty. However the contribution of the relatives of the hostages and the outraged Israeli citizens is also important in creating enough pressure on President Netanyahu to accept the offer. 

As in every conflict, several different camps around Israel and Hamas. Countries like the US, Qatar and Egypt out of necessity are involved closely in the conflict. However, the majority of the other countries, whether they are sympathetic to the self-defence right of Israel or not, kept a safe distance not to be closely involved, except one country - Turkey.

In the beginning, the Turkish President was reserved in his comments, probably because of the expectations of a role in the negotiations. However his stance quickly shifted in a pro-Hamas manner. Strong anti-Israel sentiments in his electorate was one of the motivators in this transition. Indeed anti-Israel protests began with the attack of Israel on Gaza. The demonstrations collected thousands in front of the embassies of Israel and the US. Even there were cases that tear gas had to be used to dissipate the tension, surprising many demonstrators as the gas is a staple reserved for the opposition. 

To appease the anti-Israel reaction in a controlled manner and to emphasise his stance in the conflict, a large demonstration was organised on 28th of October in the now unused Ataturk Airport in Istanbul. Hundreds of thousands attended the demonstration and President Erdogan declared his conviction that Hamas is not a terrorist organisation. Both timing which was a day before the Republic Day and the place was criticised as it is perceived as a reactionary move against the Republic of Ataturk. 

His latest visit to Germany had a long list to discuss from the right to free movement for Turkish citizens, illegal immigration, to Germany's veto on the purchase of Eurofighter Typhoon jet planes. However, the call of President Erdogan to the German prime minister to mediate peace together for the Israel-Hamas war and the accusation that Germany cannot talk freely because of their responsibilities to the Jewish community due to the Holocaust increased the tensions.

Ideological convictions and the search for a popularity rise in the Middle East akin to the “one minute” rebuke to Shimon Peres in Davos 15 years ago are motivators for the President. The leadership for the Arab world is an unrealistic but populist idea of political Islam in Turkey. To gain leadership the President of Turkey continues to alienate the Western countries. On the other hand Chinese genocide on Uyghurs and suppression of the Crimean Tatars in their homeland is avoided delicately to be voiced against Russia or China as there is not much to be gained. 

With the truce between Israel and Hamas, an opportunity to be the leader of the muslim world is missed and problems of everyday life retakes its place in the headlines. To a question if the Jewish lobbyists would be able to prevent economic investment in Turkey, the President replies that Turkey is an important country to be dismissed and he doesn’t believe that investments be affected. Whether the Jewish lobbyists or the ongoing economic crisis and deterioration of democratic and judicial norms in Turkey would be the main obstacles is a subject of debate but the belief for the future investment may be a wishful thinking.