The last night I’ve been advised that I (quote), ‘am talking about national security issues I’m I’ll equipped to talk about, and should better stick to areas that I do have value’. And that by a character that then went on to inform me that he knows much, much, much, much…much, much better than I do, though without providing any kind of evidence for that…

Cannot but express my gratitude to Mr. Superior Expert for this advice. As should be very easy to find out – all provided one attempts to do so - have spent only about 50% of my professional life studying the Arab-Israeli conflict. Thus cannot but conclude the sender either

a)       can’t understand what he reads; or 

b)      is too stupid to at least try to find out.

The naïve optimist and idealist as I am, I would prefer a), because there is help for issues like reading comprehension disorder.

Alas, in the case of b), and after some 14,000 years of (recorded) humanity, there’s still no medicine or treatment for stupidity. Indeed, this remains both a progressive and degenerative disorder….

Nevermind. I like this advice – and that very much! Therefore,  here’s the next update in regards of this conflict.

***

Up front: the Substack has a limit for the size of e-mails. Thus, when preparing my assessment from yesterday, I run out of space before analysing the strategy. Unsurprisingly, this resulted in a lots of related questions. Please, be so kind to remain patient: I’ll come back to this as soon as I can.  

Or if you can’t wait…. Well, all that’s certain right now is: IDF spokesman, Brigadier-General Danny Hagari, said there is no indication of an Iranian involvement in this affair.

….and, as far as I can say, and despite all the ‘consultations’ reported in the US and German mainstream media: without Iran, there’s also no Russian involvement.

Thus, can only advise to ignore the related hysteria - regardless how widespread it is, and what characters are misusing related fake news for what purposes.

***

After something like 48 hours of this battle, me thinks that the most important realisation is that initial reports about the number of terrorists both Hamas and PIJ have sent over the fence separating Israel from the Gaza Strip was massively underestimated. Indeed, after chatting with somebody who might know, yesterday, my impression is that even the ‘upgraded’ figure of around 1,000 from Hamas’ Nukhba Force – is still an underestimation. It could be that 300 were involved in the ‘first wave’ of attacks; it could be that up to 1,000 have followed through 7 October. However, my impression is that the totals are meanwhile going into ‘well over 1,000’. Moreover, no less than 11 different bases of the IDF and some 20 Israeli municipalities were attacked.

The reason for constantly growing figures is the fact that numerous breaches in the fence remain open, that 48 hours are a lots of time in situations of this kind, and that the IDF is still well away from blocking all of ‘entries’. Means, both Hamas and PIJ have plenty of time to rush additional reinforcements through the fence.

This is why, as of this morning, fighting went on along most of the fence

-          from the beaches of the Mediterranean Sea north of the Gaza Strip,

-          all the way up to Ashkelon,

-          and to Kiryat Gat (10km north-east of the Gaza Strip),

-          to Sderot in the east (turned out that only the completely demolished police station was secured; that Brigadier General Roman Gofman was wounded there; and that another Hamas group has entered the town)

-          then down to Kfar Aza (where fighting is going on as of this morning, too).

Further south, Nahal Oz and Be’eri were still under Palestinian control as of yesterday afternoon, despite several Israeli counterattacks, and constant presence of Israeli UAVs and attack helicopters: apparently, these are unable to seal any of breaches.

Re’im was recovered by the IDF, yesterday in the morning, which is why so many bodies of civilians massacred by terrorists during the attack on the music festival were recovered (AFAIK, at least 261). The IDF seems to have recovered its base in Re’im, about a kilometre further south, too.

As far as I can say, the situation is the ‘least clear’ in the area from En HaBsor down to Keren Shalom, and then along the road to Ofakim, about 20km east of the Gaza Strip: all three places seem to have experienced lots of fighting with scattered terrorist groups, yesterday and through the last night. In the Kerem Shalom area, the Shayetet 13 special force outfit of the IDF has managed to capture Muhammad Abu Ghal, CO of the Hamas’ Southern Brigade.

The last night around 22.00hrs, Hamas has launched its third wave of cross-border attacks. Principal target appears to have been Kissufim checkpoint (closed since August 2005).

Indeed, despite claims that ‘all settlements’ are ‘under Israeli control’, and that roadblocks have been established, even some of places initially thought to have been ‘secured’, remain ‘hot’ – because either Hamas or PIJ has managed to deploy new groups of terrorists there. This is particularly valid for Kfar Aza, Sderot, Ofakim, and En HaBsor. Multiple groups of Hamas and PIJ terrorists are still roaming the countryside.

….which is why the Israeli government yesterday ordered an evacuation of all the settlements around the Gaza Strip, in turn resulting in huge columns of cars moving along roads in northern direction.

Mobilisation of the IDF is meanwhile ramping up, with up to 300,000 under arms, and multiple columns from different Israeli units converging in direction of the Gaza Strip.

***

Regarding casualties, prisoners of war and hostages…

As of yesterday morning, Israeli officials reported 400 Hamas and PIJ terrorists killed. Haven’t found any newer figures, but lots of photos either of those captured or killed - like these:

Official Israel is reporting the death toll between Israelis at ‘over 700’, with some ‘warning’ that this is likely to go (well) over 800. Over 300 of wounded are in critical condition.

-          Hamas reported that it holds around 100 ‘Israelis’ – where this actually means ‘Israeli- and foreign citizens, which Hamas thinks are Israelis, or is not reporting them as anything else’. One way or the other: that’s ‘100’.

-          Atop of this, the PIJ reported it holds ‘30 Israelis’ – where this also seems to be a mix of Israeli- and foreign citizens.

One way or the other: that’s a total of 130 prisoners of war and hostages.

-          One of prisoners of war turned out not to be what Hamas was claiming: as reported yesterday, Hamas claimed it has captured General Nimrod Aloni, but this turned out to have taken part in several conferences of the Southern Command, yesterday and today. Therefore, the man Hamas is holding is somebody else.

That said, Hamas has already offered an exchange of prisoners of war and hostages – but also reported that four of hostages were killed in Israeli bombardment the last night, together with their captors.

***

As for the ‘air- and missile campaign’: still trying to catch with related reporting and think, eventually, it’s going to be better to explain this together with ‘strategy’ – because it’s so closely related (and that’s valid in the case of both sides).

Right now, can only conclude that Israel is bombing the Gaza Strip massively (indeed, some say there’s ‘carpet bombing’). Especially the Bayt Lahya area seems to be under near-constant air strikes. This morning, the Israelis instigated a massacre when hitting a crowded street in Jabalia (a refugee camp), killing over 50.

Shortly before that, the Gaza authorities have reported more than 510 killed and 2,750 wounded.

In turn, Hamas and PIJ are rocketing Israel at every opportunity: Lod/Ben Gurion IAP was closed down for hours, this morning, and Ashkelon and Ashdod have been hit, indicating the IASF didn’t yet re-establish its SAM-coverage. One rocket is known to have hit the Highway 1 between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.