Artwork: Halil Dervish

A possible Crimean campaign this year is becoming more and more expected because of the amount of military support from partners.

Leading military experts are sure that a lot will depend on the Zaporizhzhya direction, together with the city of Melitopol, which is actually a land corridor to Crimea. Obviously, the key to this is the supply of military weapons to the Ukrainian army from Western allies.

In December, Zaluzhny already announced the upcoming counteroffensive with the aim of at least reaching the borders by February 24, but at the same time, he noted the "necessary resources" - 300 tanks, 600-700 BMPs, 500 howitzers. When asked by journalists about Crimea, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces mentioned the city of Melitopol itself and the distance to it of 84 km.

On January 20, during a meeting at the American Ramstein base, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin called the current stage of the war a "decisive moment" and warned about 50 defense ministers of Ukraine's partner countries against "slowing down."

It is unlikely that the general public will know absolutely all the results of the meeting in regards to the military secrets, as President Zelensky himself said, summarizing the important meeting in Germany. Reznikov, the head of the Defense Department, said that "not everything can be said."

The hopes of the Western partners for a major counteroffensive in the first half of 2023 become clear from the latest statements of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, Mark Milley, and NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg.

Thus, commenting on the latest delivery of weapons by the allies, the head of the Alliance said that "the support will allow not only to defend but also to conduct own offensive actions to win back territories."

These same days, it became known about the command and staff exercises of Ukraine and the USA on the development of a potential counteroffensive in the direction of Zaporizhzhya and the possibility of strikes on Russian facilities in Crimea. The New York Times writes about this in their "The US is ready to help Ukraine target Crimea" article.

The American newspaper acknowledges the evolution of the US leadership regarding Crimea, calling it "new thinking" and notes that now the Biden administration is considering the possibility of taking one of the boldest steps - helping Ukraine attack the peninsula.

Special attention in the article is paid to "Bradley" - an armored personnel carrier with 25mm guns and guided missiles. They are the ones who should help the Armed Forces destroy the land bridge - believes the former commander of the US forces in Europe, Lieutenant General Ben Hodges.

Seth Jones, senior vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, adds that the Bradley APC can be used by Ukrainian forces to transfer troops along major routes, such as M14, which connects Kherson, Melitopol, and Mariupol.

Shortly after the publication of this article, the head of the Pentagon announced the transfer of 59 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles to the Ukrainian army, among a long list of other types of weapons from American allies.

One of the advisers of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine told Financial Times on condition of anonymity that "the strategic approach to Bakhmut is exactly the same as to Severodonetsk." After several weeks of defense of Severodonetsk, which was not of great military importance, the Ukrainian army forced the Russians to suffer heavy losses, after which they launched a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions.

The leading military analyst and professor Michael Clerk said that with the help of new armored personnel carriers, in particular, the British Challenger 2 tanks, the Ukrainians can divide the land route of the Russians in the south into two parts, which will make Crimea very vulnerable. According to the expert, the Russian analogs, T-72 and T-90 do not match up the NATO tanks such as the Challenger 2 and the German Leopard, in any way.

A week after the publication of this analysis, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace announced the delivery of 14 units of Challenger 2 tanks and another 100 units of FV430 “Bulldog” APCs. The epic around the German Leopard tanks is still quite ongoing, although the head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Oleksiy Reznikov, announced an "optimistic breakthrough" in the negotiations.

Meanwhile, in Crimea, locals report on further construction of fortifications. Photos appeared from the beach at the site of the once world-famous Kazantip festival, where roadblocks were built out of the sandbags.

Not far from the village of Yarilgach (Mizhvodne), the occupiers surrounded the sea coast with barbed wire and mines. 

Photo: Crimea Vox telegram channel

In the northeast of the peninsula, near the village of Tamak (Izobilne), locals noticed the deployment of mobile air defense groups. 

Photo: Krymskyi Viter telegram channel

It is interesting that it was during the meeting at the Ramstein base and the announced aid of Ukraine's allies that Russia began to strengthen not only the occupied Crimea but also its capital.

The unexpected deployment of the air defense complex was also noticed not far from Moscow, near Putin's residence in Novo-Ogaryovo. Presumably, we are talking about the Pantsir S1 anti-aircraft missile and gun complex.

The "Pantsyr S1" missile system was also spotted on the roof of the building of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, which is 2 km from the Kremlin.

Three "Pantsyrs" have been installed near the military airfield "Ostafievo" south of Moscow - Russian Telegram channels report.

In total, at least 7 newly installed anti-aircraft systems, including the C-400 anti-aircraft missile complex, were spotted by locals in Moscow and on the outskirts of the city.