Izzet Enünlü,

Was it a coincidence or divine will we may never know but a comedian who turned out to be a president was the allegory that President Putin made to compare the Ukrainian resistance against The Great Russian forces. Many Western powers had similar but less openly expressed thoughts about the capabilities of the prey of the bear. However, the determination, bravery, and ingenuity of the Ukrainian nation combined with the corrupt ineptitude of the Russian invader defeated the first wave of the invasion. A fandom around President Zelensky formed and the western leaders raced to personally meet and be in the frame with the hero, but the division between the supporters of Ukraine about the future of the conflict is still there. For many, this failure is an unexpected fortune and it has to be cashed out.

The division is natural and what the despots of the east see as the weakness of the west and the cause of its decline. Western democracies need to please their electors to stay in power and electors will soon be frustrated with the economic burdens that fell upon them because of the war. Also, nobody wants to escalate a local conflict to a global engagement that will reduce humanity to fight with sticks and stones.

Current Situation in Ukraine

Upon the failure of the first wave, Russian authorities had to accept their limits and shorten the frontline of the conflict as much as possible. Their forces redeployed from the northern front, quitting Kyiv suburbs and strengthening the presence in the Donbas region. According to many observers, the manoeuvre has turned the region into a meat grinder. Since the frontline in the south could not be shortened and the forces could not be concentrated to initiate a new attack the Russian activities at the moment are isolated in the east where the supply lines are shortest.

Naturally, Ukrainian forces try to exploit this weakness and try to organise counterattacks on Kharkiv and Mykolaiv. The limited successes of the Ukrainian forces stall the invaders but despite all their extraordinary resistance Russia now has an occupation zone and to end the conflict without losing territory, Ukraine requires to advance towards the frontier before 2014. President Zelensky announced their wish to realise this before the end of 2022. For some experts, this target is not unrealistic but requires six to nine heavy brigades including the support groups of long-range artillery and infantry. This in return requires a significant change in the attitude and the full commitment of the west.

Attitude of the West

Although many European countries and USA declared their support to the Ukrainian cause and promised military and monetary help, the military support seems to be lagging. The reasons for the delay are explained partly due to the necessary training of the military personnel. On the other hand, it could very well be that some of the western allies see the stalemate as an opportunity for an early peace deal that will result in the loss of Donbas and Crimea but will bring some sort of stability to the region. 

This attitude, especially willing to cede Crimea would be a big betrayal of the West against the Crimean Tatars who are resisting the brutal persecution by Russia.  Since 2014, twenty-two activists have been abducted or gone missing. At least 18 Crimean Tatars have been tortured, and about 30,000 Crimean Tatars have been forced to flee the peninsula. Many Tatars are arrested and sentenced with arbitrary and fabricated charges. Recently a Crimean Tatar activist Emil Ziyadinov, a 37-year-old sports teacher at a school in Crimea, was sentenced to 17 years in prison.  Dzhemil Gafarov, a 60-year-old Crimean Tatar political prisoner, is held despite his deteriorating health without receiving medical attention. Sentences are carried away from their homeland in Russia. The West should understand that peace in the region is not the aim but a means to protect the freedom and well-being of all the people who are living in Ukraine.

Attitude of Russia

The Russian attitude so far seems to be inspired by the novel Lord of the Rings. Terror, indiscriminate targeting of both civilians and military, and looting are the norm. Whenever the west demonstrates its unity be it the visit of the head of the United Nation or the summit of G7, President Putin shows his resolve by bombing key cities killing civilians and rarely succeeding in hitting military targets. While the Russian president nurtures his image of Sauron, the Russian soldiers after freeing Ukrainian occupied territories from refrigerators and washing machines, now higher officers organise to loot Ukrainian wheat giving the understanding why the Russian army was called the army of orcs by the Ukrainians. Moreover, efforts to commit the Belarusian army on the side of Russia continue by delivering long-range missile batteries and fighting planes to Belarus.

Danger Awaiting the Contemporary Allies

The belief that the west won’t be able to form a coherent opposition against the invasion was the main encouragement for President Putin. Although on the surface the west stood up with economic sanctions and military aid promises, the delivery of the promises is very slow and gives a mixed signal about their resolve. This encourages President Putin to that his original assumption was true. Moreover, current sanctions seem to hurt western societies more than the Russians who seem to exist to please their leader. Moreover, through the state propaganda, they already see the conflict as the beginning of WWIII and are ready for every hardship.

It is common sense that the war should finish as soon as possible but rewarding the aggression by yielding further territories would only encourage Russia. Even the possibility of such a compromise would make Russia extend the current conflict as much as possible to reap further concessions.

The only possibility for a lasting peace can be through the defeat of the Russian forces. For that, if the nine heavy mechanised brigades and supportive divisions are necessary, the armament has to be built by the west and supplied to Ukraine. This necessitates the war time economy and the tuning of the industry for the war times which means that the West has already engaged in WWIII and if a nuclear conflict would be avoided it can only be done by accepting the truth and stop giving mixed signals.